Environment: The state of emergency is accelerating

The report, ‘Observatory of Climate Change (Obs'COP)’, is an opportunity to take stock of public awareness of the climate emergency. The emergency is undeniable, with 66% of respondents declaring themselves convinced of human-caused climate change. We also note a rise in concern about the decline in biodiversity, echoing an intense communication campaign by NGOs and international organisations on the subject (+7 points to 27% of respondents globally). This is especially pronounced in France (38%, +15 pts).

While in the past Ipsos has pointed out the discrepancy between what people say and what they do, in terms of following up reported record levels of concern about the climate crisis with action (see our ‘Climate Change and Consumer Behaviour’ survey), what should be especially emphasised here is a feeling of powerlessness among many people: only 19% of French people expect the environment to be given priority if it may slow economic growth and cause job losses.

In France, this feeling is manifested less by a rise climate skepticism (which fell by 3 points) or by prioritising  the economy (48% of French people, +4 pts., think that priority should be given to the environment rather than to growth) than in the majority attitude of the French towards the solutions proposed: only 35% of the French (admittedly up 3 pts.) support an increase in the price of petrol and gas to reduce emissions. With the troubling impacts posed by inflation, this will be one to watch.

Unsurprisingly, given the strong local oppositions to wind farms, particularly in North-Western France, only 57% of French people say they are in favour of installing a large number of onshore wind turbines (which places France in second to last place of the thirty countries of the survey).

But there is good news for the government, which has obtained permission from the European Commission to classify nuclear energy as a “green energy”: a relative majority of French people say they are in favour of the production of electricity from nuclear power plants (46% against 44%).

It should be noted that the two other countries of the European Union where a relative or absolute majority of respondents say they are in favour of nuclear power are Sweden (55%), where the people voted in 1980 to phase out civilian nuclear power before the government finally decided to back down in 2009, and Poland (46%), devoid of nuclear power plants, but worried about its excessive dependence on local coal, which is very polluting (66% of Poles would like to get out of coal), and politically sensitive Russian gas.

In the end, the key issue is, as always, knowing who will pay: if a majority of French people declare themselves in favour, in principle, of a tax on plane tickets (54%), a ban on short-haul flights (74%), or the requirement of owners to properly insulate their homes (70%, testament to the success of Ma Prime Renov' – a home energy renovation initiative), it is probably because it is not a question of recurring daily expenses (unlike fuel prices or gas or electricity bills). Few French people use domestic flights (and international traffic has greatly decreased in volume and frequency) and few of them have more than one accommodation to renovate.

The results of the Climate Change Observatory survey deserve to be compared with the monthly What Worries the World study carried out by Ipsos for more than ten years and in nearly 30 countries. On the two questions that explore whether people think the country is heading in the right or wrong direction, and which are the three most concerning issues of a list of 18 issues, France has long distinguished itself through:

• A large majority who are pessimistic about the direction of the country – something that can be judged as excessive considering the objective situation of France.
• A high level of concern about unemployment – something that is perfectly understandable given the higher-than-average rate for developed countries.

When we look at the results of the last few months, however, we can see lasting changes. Since the election of Emmanuel Macron in 2017, which coincided with an ultimately lasting drop in the unemployment rate, unemployment is no longer the first concern of the French people. The only exception was the month of June 2020, when many working people were laid off by the pandemic.

Terrorism was one of the most shared concerns only during the month following each of the attacks that France fell victim to. This also shows a form of trivialisation of the effect sought by terrorists as the recurrence of attacks paradoxically results in a climate of terror not setting in.

A constant has been the rise in concerns about crime when economic concerns recede (we were already talking about this in the year preceding the 2002 presidential election). However, this is a long-term process. Only in the spring of 2021 did the two curves cross, and the number of French people concerned about crime exceeded that of those who were primarily worried about unemployment.

As we have said, daily expenses this year are a particular worry for the French. Their concerns about the cost of living are on the rise (57%, + 7 pts, in one year) and the short-term outlook remains – at best – uncertain.

Finally, some recent developments (since the start of the pandemic) disprove two dominant ideas:

1. The pandemic, confinement and the vaccine pass have not increased the pessimism of the French relative to that of other nations. On the contrary: France is now among the "moderately pessimistic" countries, roughly at the same level as its neighbours, while it often occupied one of the very last places in the middle of the past decade.
2. The pandemic hasn't spurred incredible environmental awareness either. From summer 2020 to summer 2021, climate change was rather a declining concern compared to the pre-pandemic period. It was only this summer (with the images of fires and floods that could be directly linked to climate change) that the level of concern in this area rose.              

Between Surprises and Exasperations: The Price Rise effect

In December 2021, shortages of raw materials, production and transport problems (especially because of the omicron variant), and the resulting inflation, began to increase the prices of many products,[1] as well as the prices of gas and electricity, stamps, and fuel.

If we add rent or mortgage repayments, car leasing, water and electricity bills, insurance contributions, phone bills and internet access, these essential expenses represent more than a third of the income of an average household and 70% of the income of the poorest French people, with an average of €1,059 per month.[2]

The impact of household expenses accentuates the disparities between socioeconomic classes (essential expenses represent only 26% of the income of current retirees who have almost all finished repaying their mortgage) and regions (Paris is in the lead with expenses taking 30% of the share of the average net monthly income, followed by Hauts-de-France, 38%, and Occitanie, 39%.

Purchasing power is a central issue, with the feeling of impoverishment on the rise. This is confirmed in the December 2021 edition of our What Worries the World survey,[3] our Global Advisor survey on the on the perception of inflation in the world,[4] and in Obs'COP 2021[5]  -  the Ipsos/EDF International Observatory on Climate and Public Opinion.

What Worries the World reveals that poverty and social inequalities worried 31% of French people in April 2022 (compared with 29% in November) and that 68% believed that France was going in the wrong direction, in line with an average of 70% in 2021.[6]

Our Global Advisor survey on inflation also shows that 53% feel that the prices they have paid in recent weeks are higher than six months ago (including 22% who say prices are "much higher"), a score that rises to 57% among 50–74-year-olds).

Obs'COP 2021 reveals that the issue of the cost of living is now at the top of the concerns of the French (57%, +7pts compared to 2020). The survey on inflation also shows that 40% of French people expect an increase in their spending in the next three months.

The Ipsos' ConnectLive community answered questions at the end of November 2021 about their perception of their financial situation, and this makes it possible to define increasingly divided positions and reactions.

Even if the income of millions of French people is objectively guaranteed (pensioners[7], civil servants[8], public service employees and the similar[9] recipients of social benefits and the redistribution system in general), getting through price increases is a diminishing privilege.

Those who feel they are doing well and who remain POSITIVE include those in different types of situations:

• Where certain expenses are covered by their employer: “I am lucky that my company pays me my fuel. Likewise, my husband has a truck for the week.”
• Where there are alternatives to the car and public transport:
  “I am lucky not to have to use my car to get to work. I am, and I know it, privileged on this matter and I can understand the discontent of people who have to travel several dozen kilometres a day.”
  (Note the recurrence of "luck" in these two testimonies.)
• Where habits have already been transformed, especially due to lockdowns, (buying more locally, more frugally, growing produce in the garden, using the car less, renovating the house to consume less energy, travelling less etc.) which frees up useful purchasing power to offset price increases.
• Where income makes it possible to bear new burdens painlessly with an unchanged lifestyle.

The behaviours of others change, with a corresponding rise of exasperation and frustrations.

The BARGAINERS extend behaviours adopted during lockdowns, for economic reasons if they have suffered from lockdown’s financial consequences, or ethical if they have asked themselves questions about the meaning and value of consumption: “Our purchasing power has been affected by the health crisis and we have refocused our spending on what seemed essential to us before the crisis and has become even more so after Covid:  sharing family moments around sociable meals at home, in an environment that we took care to renovate together during the lockdown. The expenses are much lower than going to a restaurant, but the enjoyment provided by these moments of sharing is second to none!”.

They face increases and absorb them by rationalising and adjusting their spending, their consumption and, in particular, by thinking about the usefulness of this or that purchase, the quality-price ratio and the nature of its practical or emotional benefit.

The Bargainers are adapting and adopting new behaviours: “I have prepared a lot this year. I ordered pellets for the boiler in June with my salary bonus, I agree to pay bills in several instalments - which I never used to do, I make purchases by deferred payment (thanks to my bank!) or by paying in several monthly instalments with PayPal”. They are the least exasperated, because they give up certain spending desires with conviction or out of reason.

The SURPRISED represent the most sensitive and volatile category socially and politically:

• They realise that the increases were neither media fiction nor reserved for others: “I had heard a lot about it on the news, but I didn’t feel the increases on my wallet. But since the beginning of November, it’s been a real blow. All the bills are going up and prices at the supermarket have gone up by 20 or even 50 cents. That's crazy!”.
• They are destabilised because they had not anticipated the rises and did not imagine having to change their habits and their "lifestyle", overestimating in particular their purchasing power, or now having to seek additional income: “I accept to work extra hours as soon as I’m offered and I am careful when I do my shopping”.
• They feel particularly downtrodden and frustrated because there is no pleasure associated with household expenses, most of which are operating costs to access services (telecoms, streaming, etc.) and represent charges with no immediate perceived benefit (“We’ll really be the owner in twenty years”), which can lead to resentment and exasperation.

The EXASPERATED include different categories:

• Those whose financial situation is already difficult, and whose purchasing power is weakened further by price and/or tax increases, leaving a decreasing remainder to live off and a social status in constant decline; they are convinced that they will never get out of it.
• Those who feel dragged down and above all scorned (ex-Gilets jaunes, antivax, the very working-class); absent from the political landscape, they have become anti-system (anti-globalisation, anti-Europe, anti-politicians, anti-media) who withdraw in resentment: “We have reduced the temperature of the heating and we try not to use the car too much. We also pay attention to electricity consumption. And this miserable €100 bonus is not going to change anything. Our politicians are far from reality.”
• Those who do not miss the opportunity to stigmatise the "Elites" (“who profit to death without increasing benefits or wages. At best two or three one-off gestures, shame on them"), the "Profiteers" of taxes (“It’s going to be hard to manage everything if it continues to increase like this and we are mocked by giving more and more to the lazy.”).

Their frustration is compounded because they feel that the promised support is just empty talk whereas reducing taxes if only temporarily (a measure refused by the government) seems to them to be the best solution: "The various announcements for disadvantaged families are just a publicity stunt before the election! And when we know that for fuel, gas and electricity, it is 60% of taxes and subscriptions.”

It should be noted that, depending on the level of inflation and a particular price increase, it is easy to become a Surprised if a particular financial aid is no longer accessible, a Surprised who can turn into an Exasperated if they have to give up small pleasures. A Bargainer can also turn into a Surprised if their wisdom is not rewarded and they discover the same frustration.

At the socio-political level, the inflation and rising prices for basic necessities were at the root of riots and looting in Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela, with restrictions placed on bank withdrawals, loss of savings and increased unemployment and poverty.

Whether it is the radicalised social movements in Guadeloupe or Martinique, or the intimidation and aggression of elected officials according to their political commitment or their position towards the vaccination pass in the Netherlands, violence is a recurring theme. One in five French people now believe that “the use of violence can be justified to defend one's interests”.[10]

From a commercial point of view, the question of purchasing power is central to understanding the occasional success of discount operations, for instance, Black Friday 2021. According to Criteo's analysis, sales increased by 40% compared to the average from 1 to 7 November 2020. "Compared to 2020, the increase in online sales has been significant, reaching nearly 160% compared to the beginning of November. The most popular categories were consumer electronics, clothing, jewellery, and luxury goods”.[11]

At the same time, new brands are developing, such as Normal or Hema: they represent a real opportunity to reconcile all categories, from the Exasperated to the Bargainers, by making it possible to meet a need or to treat oneself at a lower cost. They also raise the question of the true value of things, if the same product is subject to even greater price variations.