How to define 2021?

The first important observation, because it goes against prevailing wisdom, is that the political crisis and mistrust have diminished.

Admittedly, and it should neither be understated nor forgotten, the levels often remain bad or even very bad, but the climax of mistrust and rejection of the traditional political system was reached in 2015 and 2016 and improved thereafter. Compared to 2016, in 2021 trust in politicians increased for all the actors considered: +6 pts for city officials, +7 pts for MPs, +8 pts for political parties, +10 and +11 pts for local councillors and +16 pts for the European Union.

Although the idea that most politicians are corrupt remains strong, shared by 62% of French people, it is down 10 points compared to 2016. And on a central issue, the feeling that “the democratic system works badly, my ideas are not well represented”, dropped from 83% down to 69%. So, there is still a long way to go, but the country is not as critical today in its relationship to politics as it was five years ago.

On the other hand, society is more polarised on these indicators. Compared to 2016, mistrust has diminished among PS, EELV or LR sympathizers; it is not very marked among those who now classify themselves as Centrist LREM supporters, but it is very strong and has rather increased among supporters of the Far-Left party France Insoumise while also remaining very high among those of the Far-Right RN. The distance between these groups and the others has therefore increased.

The second observation is that identity concerns are still very important but, globally, stable. The feeling that France is in decline has fallen between 2016 to 2021, from 86% to 75%. But among decliners, the share of those who think the damage is irreversible has increased, from 24% to 30%.

Similarly, all the indicators on relationships with others (spontaneous trust in others, the feeling of no longer being at home in France, the idea that there are too many foreigners and that they cannot fully integrate) remain stable and marked by defiance or rejection at a high level. This is also true for the demand for authority, or the relationship to the past, marked by nostalgia.

Finally, the idea that Islam in France would seek to impose its mode of operation on others has certainly decreased slightly, dropping from 75% to 69%, but the feeling that "even if this is not its message principle, Islam nevertheless carries within it the seeds of violence and intolerance” has progressed (50%, +9).

The third observation is that, as far as economic and social issues are concerned, there is a demand for more security. Globalisation is still perceived by 58% of French people as a threat to France, but the idea that the country must protect itself more from today's world rather than open up has increased by 7 points to reach a record level of 64%.

Today 62% of French people think that "the unemployed could find work if they really wanted to" (+5 points compared to 2016) but conversely, the feeling that the country is moving towards providing too much assistance has fallen sharply (58%, -12 points), moving further towards the idea that “there is not enough solidarity with people who need it” (42%, +12).

Finally, while in 2016, 51% of French people advocated greater flexibility in the labour market, this stands at 43% today, and 47% demand greater protection for employees.

So, what happened between 2016 and 2021?

The simple answer is an increased experience of vulnerability.

This era was marked by the eruption of particularly bloody and abominable Islamic terrorism, violent clashes at the time of the gilets jaunes protests, and the eruption of the Covid 19 virus, carrying a deadly threat both to humans and the economy.

The country has thus suffered major shocks. Faced with this, the main request of the French people is one of protection. Indeed, the French have rediscovered the usefulness of having political leaders who take decisions in this direction. But they are massively dissatisfied (30% say they belong to an "angry and very rebellious" France, 60% to a "dissatisfied but not angry" France), and the country remains in a very unstable situation. However, discontent prevails over anger.

Today’s is a different climate from that of 2016 and is undoubtedly less conducive to populist surges, at least for now.