5 Years of Keir: A briefing to mark the 5th anniversary of Keir Starmer becoming leader of the Labour party

How does Starmer compare to his predecessors? 

Starmer’s highest net satisfaction rating was his first rating in June 2020 (+31). However, our most recent rating (December 2024) is his worst net satisfaction rating (-34). Starmer had a +7 net satisfaction rating after the 2024 General Election. Whilst Starmer’s net satisfaction rating is better than Jeremy Corbyn’s after a similar timespan as leader, his most recent rating was worse than Neil Kinnock, Gordon Brown, Ed Miliband, and much worse than Tony Blair. 

Compared to other Labour leaders after five years as leader:

• Neil Kinnock: -15 (October 1988)
• Tony Blair: +10 (August 1999).
• Gordon Brown: -24 (April 2010 – after just under 3 years a Labour leader).
• Ed Miliband: -19 (April 2015).
• Jeremy Corbyn: -49 (March 2020).

Starmer’s current net satisfaction rating is comparable to Ed Miliband's in the run-up to the 2015 General Election (-34 in October 2014, -35 in January and February 2015) and Gordon Brown’s in December 2009. But Starmer’s current rating is better than Jeremy Corbyn’s worst net satisfaction rating of -60 (September and October 2019). Neil Kinnock and Tony Blair did not have a rating lower than -34 in their first five years as Labour leader. Tony Blair did not have a negative net satisfaction rating in his first five years as Labour leader.

The Ipsos take

Five years after becoming leader of the Labour party, Keir Starmer has succeeded in his mission to remake his party and win a General Election – but the country as a whole is largely pessimistic about his government’s performance and remains sceptical of the man himself.

Buoyed by the leadership role he has taken in the European response to the war in Ukraine, Starmer has experienced a small boost to his public image in recent weeks, with a net approval rating of -17, up from -25 in February. In addition, four in ten (40%) Britons say that the government has done a good job handling the Russian invasion of Ukraine (+6 ppts from February). Starmer also continues to be favoured in a head-to-head contest against Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch (33% vs 16%) and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage (36% vs. 25%).

However, public perception of the Labour government remains low, with the largest disapproval ratings for their handling of the issues that Ipsos polling routinely finds matter most to voters – the economy, immigration, and the NHS. While the Labour Party set out ambitious missions for their first term, including "kickstarting economic growth," "making Britain a clean energy superpower," and "building an NHS fit for the future," the public is downbeat about their current performance on these missions and pessimistic about the likelihood of achieving these goals. On Labour’s milestones, the public's top priorities, including cutting energy bills, reducing net migration, and cutting NHS waiting times, are also the areas with some of the highest disapproval ratings for the government's performance. Only one milestone, strengthening Britain's armed forces, has a positive net approval rating, with the public split on whether the government is doing a good or bad job.

Analysis from Keiran Pedley, Director of Politics at Ipsos UK: 

As he approaches five years since becoming Leader of the Labour party, and 9 months in office, there are reasons for Keir Starmer to be cheerful. He is preferred as Prime Minister to his main rivals and given his large majority in Parliament and lack of obvious internal Labour Party challengers, his position appears secure. Yet it would be naive to ignore the significant challenges facing him. The public mood is pessimistic, and many are impatient to see the change that was so central to Labour's campaign promises. Starmer and his team will be mindful of the need to deliver for a 2024 Labour voting coalition that prioritises the NHS, cost of living and fighting poverty and keen to avoid the negative public mood consuming this government as it did the last.