Britons Predict 2025: Starmer stays, recession looms, and Prince Harry unlikely to return to the UK

Ipsos in the UK asked Britons about the likelihood of a selection of events occurring in 2025.

Politics

• Public think Starmer will stay Prime Minister but are more divided on Badenoch’s future: Six in ten (61%) Britons think that Keir Starmer will remain Prime Minister by the end of 2025. Conversely, half (49%) believe that Kemi Badenoch will still be Leader of the Opposition by the year’s end, with 28% believing she will be replaced. 
• Sunak's tech future: The public is split on the possibility of Rishi Sunak relocating to California for a tech job, with 36% saying it is likely and a third (33%) saying it is unlikely.
• Johnson's Return Uncertain: Public opinion is split on Boris Johnson's potential return to Parliament through a by-election, with 32% deeming it likely and almost half (49%) saying it is unlikely.
• Reform UK's rise: Just over half (52%) of Britons believe Reform UK will secure the most seats in the 2025 local elections in England.
• Conservative-Reform UK merger unlikely: The majority (64%) consider a merger between the Conservative Party and Reform UK improbable in the year ahead.

Economy

• Recession fears: Over half (57%) of Britons anticipate the UK economy to enter a recession in 2025.
• US trade deal scepticism: 45% doubt that the UK will sign a major trade deal with the United States. 
• Personal finance optimism tempered: While nearly half (48%) of Britons believe their financial situation will improve, a substantial portion (39%) remain pessimistic.
• Inflation target doubts: Just over half (53%) do not expect the UK's inflation rate to fall below 2%.

Pop culture

• Ant & Dec dominance: Just over six in ten (63%) predict that Ant & Dec will win the Best Presenter Award at the National Television Awards.
• Taylor Swift's Grammy prospects: A similar proportion (62%) also favour Taylor Swift to win Album of the Year at the Grammys.
• Oasis reunion uncertainty: Opinion is divided on the Oasis reunion, with 38% believing it will not happen due to a Gallagher brothers’ fallout, while 37% anticipate it will.
• Eurovision hopes: 14% believe the UK will achieve a top three finish at Eurovision, with seven in ten (71%) believing that such a high result is unlikely. 
• Molly-Mae and Tommy reunion unlikely: 32% do not foresee a reunion between Molly-Mae Hague and Tommy Fury, with 14% expecting them to get back together in 2025.

Sports

• Openly gay footballer: Four in ten (40%) believe the first active Premier League footballer will come out as gay in the year ahead.
• Doubts about a British victory at Wimbledon: Most Britons (59%) do not expect a British tennis player to lift the trophy at Wimbledon.
• Man City relegation unlikely: 54% do not anticipate Manchester City to be relegated from the Premier League in the year ahead.

Other

• Social media ban possible: Half (50%) of Britons believe a major social media network could be banned in the UK.
• Nuclear detonation fears: A substantial portion (47%) fear the detonation of a nuclear weapon during a war.
• Prince Harry's return to the UK unlikely: The majority (63%) do not expect Prince Harry to move back to the UK permanently.

Ipsos also released the 11th edition of the Ipsos Predictions Survey, a 33-country study which looks at people’s expectations and predictions for the year ahead.

Key findings from the Ipsos Predictions Survey

• Immigration concerns remain high: Three quarters (75%) of Britons say that in 2025 the level of immigration coming into Britain will increase. This is higher than the global average of 67%. 
• Extreme weather worries endure but are lower than the previous year: Seven in ten (70%) Britons feel that there will be more extreme weather in Britain in 2025 than there was in 2024 (-8 ppt), similar to the global average of 72%. Over half (56%) of Britons think that the government will introduce stronger targets to reduce carbon emissions, compared with a global average of 52%. 
• AI and job losses: Six in ten Britons believe that AI will lead to significant job losses in Britain (-5ppt). Globally, two-thirds (65%) feel AI will lead to many new jobs being lost in their country. 
• Gloomy economic outlook: Just four in ten (41%) Britons think that the global economy will be stronger in 2025 than it was in 2024. This is ten percentage points below the global average of 51%. 
• A difficult year, with hope for improvement: Seven in ten (71%) Britons say that 2024 was a bad year for Britain. While this is a significant majority, it is down from 78% who said the same last year. Globally, two-thirds (65%) say 2024 was a bad year for my country, down 5ppt since last year - the lowest figure since 2019. One in two (51%) globally say this year was a bad year for my family, down 2pp since 2023.
• Optimism for the year ahead slightly down: Six in ten (61%) Britons are optimistic that 2025 will be better than 2024 for them personally, down 3 ppt from last year. Globally, seven in ten (71%) say they are optimistic 2025 will be better than this year. This is higher than in 2022 (65%) but below the level of positivity seen before the pandemic, when three in four were thought the next year would be better.