Britons wary of potential Trump win, impact on economic and foreign affairs

With the US presidential election taking place today, new polling data from Ipsos reveals a mixture of hope and concern among the British public regarding the potential outcomes. The survey highlights the significant impact the election is expected to have on transatlantic relations and global affairs.

• Harris victory seen as positive: Half of Britons (50%) believe a Kamala Harris victory would be a "good thing," while only 21% say the same about a Donald Trump win.  Conversely, 63% anticipate a Trump presidency would be a "bad thing." Less than half say the same about a possible Harris win (18%).
  •    Impact on UK-US Relations:  A plurality (47%) believes a Harris presidency would positively impact the UK's relationship with the US, compared to just 19% who say the same about a Trump presidency. A larger share (59%) anticipates a negative impact under Trump.
• US Global Influence: Four in ten (39%) Britons believe the US will mostly use its influence for good under a Harris presidency.  A similar proportion (40%) believes the US will mostly use its influence for bad under a Trump presidency.
• Concerns about Trump's Reaction to Defeat: A significant majority (62%) of Britons are concerned about Donald Trump not accepting defeat if Kamala Harris wins. This concern is considerably higher than the concern about Harris not accepting defeat if Trump wins (19%).
• Economic and Foreign Policy Concerns: The British public expresses significant concern about the potential impact of a Trump presidency on various issues, including increased international conflict (68%), the stability of the global economy (65%), political stability in the US (63%) and other countries (61%). 56% are concerned about possible waning UK influence as part of the special relationship. Concern about similar issues if Harris wins is significantly weaker.

Commenting on the findings, Keiran Pedley, Research Director at Ipsos UK said:

The data clearly indicates a strong preference among the British public for a Kamala Harris victory in the upcoming US election.  There is widespread apprehension about the potential consequences of a second Trump term, particularly regarding international relations, global stability, and the UK's relationship with the US.  On the other hand, the British public are also concerned about whether Trump will accept defeat if he loses too.

Technical note: 

• Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,076 Online British adults aged 18-75 between October 25th and 28th, 2024.
• Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.