Economic optimism falls to lowest level for one year anniversary after GE since Margaret Thatcher in 1980

Ipsos’ Economic Optimism Index asks Britons whether they think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next twelve months, and has been tracking the economic mood of Britons since 1978.  Fieldwork for this month’s data was collected 2-8 July.

The latest results show 12% think the economy will improve (down 4 pts since June), and 68% get worse (up 8pts), giving a net Ipsos Economic Optimism Index figure of -56.  16% think there will be no change (down 5 pts over the month).

The level of net economic optimism today (on the one year anniversary after the General Election) equals the lowest recorded at this stage after a vote, similar to that of Margaret Thatcher in April 1980 after her first victory (-55).

Issues Index

The July 2025 Ipsos Issues Index reveals the top six issues facing the country in the eyes of Britons remain the same, with a slight rise in public concern about immigration.

Immigration continues to be seen as the biggest issue facing the country, with 40% of Britons mentioning it as an issue. Immigration remains a particular concern for Reform UK (80%) and Conservative (47%) supporters, those aged 55+ (50%) and people in social grades C2DE (46%).

The economy and the NHS remain the joint second-biggest issues, each mentioned by 30%. Concern for both has fallen slightly by three percentage points since last month.

Defence and foreign affairs and inflation remain the fourth- and fifth-biggest issues, mentioned by 20% and 17% respectively.

Elsewhere in the ranking, concern about pensions/social security/benefits has risen three percentage points this month, mentioned by 12%. This is the highest level of concern since June 2017.

Gideon Skinner, Senior Director of UK Politics at Ipsos, said:

Ahead of the recent news of a fall in monthly GDP and rise in inflation, Ipsos data shows that Britons’ economic optimism was already worsening in July, after a couple of months in which it showed some signs of recovery after the concern caused by Donald Trump’s original tariff announcements in April. And at a time when people are taking stock of Labour’s performance on the one-year anniversary after the election, the long-term comparisons aren’t encouraging. The Ipsos archive shows the only newly-elected government facing a similarly challenging context in consumer confidence on its anniversary was Margaret Thatcher’s in 1980.

However it’s not just the economy that Britons are worried about.  The NHS, defence/foreign affairs, and most of all immigration (especially for Reform UK and Conservative supporters) are also all on the public’s agenda.  And although it’s lower down the list, concern over pensions and benefits has doubled since March, reflecting Labour’s struggles with its welfare reform bill.

Technical note:

• Ipsos' Issues Index is the longest-running gauge of British public concerns. It is conducted monthly and has provided an overview of the key issues concerning the country for over 50 years. The answers are spontaneous responses, and participants are not prompted.
• Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,001 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Ipsos’ telephone omnibus was used for this survey. Interviews were conducted between 2 – 8th July 2025. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.