EMU - Shift in Sentiment

Figure 1. UK -- Question 1. If There Were a Referendum Now on Whether Britain Should Be Part of A Single European Currency, How Would You Vote? Balance of Opinion, Nov 91-Jul 98

Note: The chart shows the percentage of people that would vote "Yes" less the percentage that would vote "No".

Is the EMU Tide Turning?

The Sun Brought EMU to the Centre of Political Debate ...

In June, The Sun (the UK's largest-selling daily newspaper) put Prime Minister Tony Blair on its front page and asked whether, "in light of Labour's pro-EMU stance, he is the most dangerous man in Britain?". This action propelled EMU to the centre of the political debate. 'Europe' subsequently raced up to equal second among voters' top concerns, matching education and unemployment, and only behind health. By contrast, over the past year Europe has usually been a fairly distant fourth behind these other issues.

... but Public Opposition to EMU Has Fallen, Not Risen

However, The Sun's headlines did not succeed in hardening anti-EMU sentiment. Indeed, the opposite seems to have occurred, with a marked drop in public opposition to EMU in our latest poll. In response to the "How would you vote?" question, the balance of opinion against EMU has fallen to 17% now, from 23% in May and 25% in March. The latest figure is the lowest since MORI began regular polling on this question in 1991.

Figure 2. UK -- Question 1. If There Were a Referendum Now on Whether Britain Should Be Part of A Single European Currency, How Would You Vote? Oct 97-Jul 98

Note: Sample sizes are for July 1998, but are similar for earlier results. Numbers may not sum because of rounding.

Figure 3. UK -- If There Were a Referendum Now on Whether Britain Should Be Part of A Single European Currency, How Would You Vote? Nov 91-Jul 98

Same Pattern Allowing for Strong Government Pro-EMU Stance

There is a similar pattern using our second question, which assesses EMU sentiment against the likely background of pro-EMU support from the government. This kind of question gave a better guide to the actual outcome of the 1975 referendum on the UK's Common Market membership than the simple "How would you vote?" in question 1. On this basis, the balance of opinion against EMU has fallen to just 7% now, from 14% in May, the lowest in this question's five-month run.

Figure 4. UK -- Question 2: If the Government Were to Strongly Urge That Britain Should Be Part of a Single European Currency, How Would You Vote? Nov 97-Jul 98

Note: Latest survey was carried out between 23 and 28 July 1998. Sample size 2,036 people.

Pro-EMU Shift Concentrated Among Labour/Liberal Voters, and 35-65 Year Age Groups ...

On both questions, the split shows a marked drop in hostility in the latest month among Labour and Liberal voters, the high-income AB welfare group (professional and managerial staff), the lower-income C2 (skilled manual workers) and DE (chiefly unskilled manual workers, people on benefits, unemployed) groups, people who own their home outright and the 35-64 year age group. Since last autumn, there also has been a sharp pro-EMU swing among people with a mortgage. There has been little or no shift in sentiment among Conservative voters, the over 65 age group, and those who rent their house, who all remain firmly anti-EMU. Pro-EMU sentiment has risen among the under 24 year age group since May, but remains volatile.

... Possibly Due to Greater Business Support for EMU, and Reminder of Labour's Pro-EMU Stance ...

These shifts may reflect three factors: first, the high pound and slowing economy are probably reinforcing pro-EMU sentiment among most business groups, and this may be affecting the AB group. People with a mortgage might hope to gain from a shift to lower, Euro-level, interest rates, and those who own their home outright might hope that house prices also would rise in this scenario. In addition, the greater political focus on EMU, coupled with the reminder that the government favours eventual entry, may have lifted pro-EMU sentiment among Labour and Liberal voters (many of whom are in the C2 and DE social groups).

... Pro-EMU Shift Concentrated in Readers of Tabloid Press

Surprisingly -- given The Sun's headlines -- the drop in hostility to EMU since May has all been concentrated among readers of the tabloid daily papers ('the popular press'), rather than the broadsheets ('the quality press') . Split by newspaper readership, The Sun's readership is the most anti-EMU group and sentiment among that group remains firmly hostile. However, the readership of the Daily Mirror, Daily Mail and Daily Express has become markedly less anti-EMU since May. Sentiment remains pro-EMU among readers of the quality press in aggregate, but there has been no change over recent months and sentiment among this group is still less pro-EMU than in January. The readership of the Financial Times, though small in number, is highly pro-EMU.