Financial Times Election Research - Poll 5

Including questions on tactical voting, effect of the Iraq invasion on voting, and interest in politicians' speeches, party election broadcasts and opinion polls

Topline Results

  • MORI interviewed 1,009 British adults, aged 18+ by telephone between 29 April and 1 May 2005
  • Data are weighted to reflect the national population profile
  • An (*) indicates a finding of less than 0.5%, but greater than zero
  • Where percentages do not add up to exactly 100% this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't knows" or to multiple answers

Voting Intentions -- all absolutely certain to vote (64%)

QA How do you intend to vote in the general election on May 5th? Will you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or for another party? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1 QB Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: 651 British adults

  %
Conservative 29
Labour 39
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 22
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 2
UK Independence Party 3
Other 2
 
Lab lead (177%) +10
 
Would not vote *
Undecided 10
Refused 6

Voting Intentions -- all naming a party

QA How do you intend to vote in the general election on May 5th? Will you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or for another party? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1 QB Which party are you most inclined to support?

  %
Conservative 26
Labour 41
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 24
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 2
UK Independence Party 2
Other 2
 
Lab lead (177%) +15
 
Would not vote 8
Undecided 13
Refused 6

QC And how likely will you be to vote in the General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?

  %
10 -- absolutely certain to vote 64
9 6
8 7
7 4
6 2
5 5
4 2
3 2
2 1
1 -- absolutely certain not to vote 7
Don't know 1
Refused *

Q1 Have you definitely decided to vote for ... party or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote? Base: 737 British adults naming a party

  %
Definitely decided 63
May change mind 36
Don't know 1

 See also Trends on this question

Q2 Which of the following comes closest to your reasons for intending to vote the ... party? Base: 737 British adults

  %
It is the party that most represents your views OR 80
The party you support has little chance of winning in this constituency so you vote for ... party to try to keep another party out 15
Don't know 5

Q3 How much would you say who wins this election will affect you and your family? Would you say...

  %
A great deal 20
A fair amount 31
Not very much 33
Not at all 12
Don't know 4

Q4 If there are local council elections in your area on 5th May, which party will you vote for? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q4 Q5 Which party are you most inclined to support? Not rebased on those voting

  %
Conservative 24
Labour 35
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 30
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 4
Green Party 2
UK Independence Party 1
Independent Candidate 2
Other 2
Would not vote 11
There aren't any local council elections in my area 5
Undecided 17
Refused 7

Q6 Which one of these definitions, if any, comes closest to your own political views?

  %
New Labour 23
Old Labour 12
Liberal 16
One Nation Tory 7
Thatcherite Tory 9
Social Democrat 6
Nationalist 3
Other 2
None of these 9
Don't know 11

Q7 As you probably know there has been much debate in the media over the last couple of days following the publication of the Attorney General's legal advice to the government prior to the invasion of Iraq. Has the debate about this advice changed the way in which you intend to vote on 5th May?

  %
Yes 11
No 86
Don't know 3

Q8 How were you intending to vote prior to the publication and debate about the Attorney General's legal advice? Base: 113 British adults

  %
Conservative 5
Labour 23
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 5
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist *
Green Party 0
UK Independence Party 0
Other 22
Would not vote 1
Undecided 39
Refused 3

Q9 Thinking about the British government's decision to take part in the invasion of Iraq, which one of these do you personally think was true?

  %
Tony Blair has always told the truth about Iraq 19
Tony Blair told the truth about Iraq to begin with, but he lied later 27
Tony Blair lied about Iraq from the start 35
Other 6
None of these 6
Don't know 8

Q10-12 How interested would you say you are in the following?

  Very interested Fairly interested Not very interested Not at all interested Don't know
  % % % % %
What opinion polls say about the election 8 31 29 30 2
Party election broadcasts 8 26 28 38 1
Politician's speeches 10 34 26 29 *

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