The Future Cohort Study

This research, conducted on behalf of the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), aimed to better understand the Working Tax Credits, Child Tax Credits and Housing Benefit population. Based on their individual and household income, this population would make up the vast majority of the so-called ‘Future Cohort’, i.e. claimants who would be in work but on low pay if they were moved across to Universal Credit today. The research explored the characteristics of the future cohort, the range of barriers and enablers to progression in work, their support needs, and their awareness of and reactions to different support options.

The full report can be found here.

Characteristics of the ‘future cohort’

• Around three-quarters (77%) were women.
• Half (51%) were single parents.
• One quarter (27%) said they were limited in their day-to-day activities because of a health condition or disability, and one in seven (15%) had caring responsibilities for another adult.
• Around one fifth are from an ethnic background (18%) and have English as a second language (21%).

Motivations

The combination of caring responsibilities and long-term health conditions and disabilities meant that many future cohort members were working in jobs that fitted around their family commitments and pre-existing health conditions. The majority were satisfied with their job, particularly the number of hours they work, and whilst they would like to earn more, this would not be at the expense of working more hours or leaving their current job. This was emphasised among parents with young children. Others, with older children, were committed to progress as soon as possible.

The picture was more complex for those without dependent children. This group was older and more likely to report having a long-term health condition or disability. They were resistant to change for a range of reasons: because they were happy with their work-life balance and had no wish to work more hours; their current job was optimal for their health condition and disability; and they were unable to progress because they lacked the qualifications and skills employers want. However, similar to those with children, there was a group of younger single adults and couples who were keen to progress in work immediately.

Segmentation analysis

Our segmentation analysis identified five discrete groups of claimants, based on their attitudes and behaviours to in-work progression. These segments revealed the diversity of the future cohort in terms of their motivations and preparedness for in-work progression:

· “Keen to progress”: This group was the most dissatisfied with their job and wanted to find a job with more hours and pay. They were more likely than other segments to be in precarious jobs including zero-hours contracts, and a large majority were struggling with their bills. They were younger and the majority had a partner. A third were from an ethnic minority or had English as a second language – the highest of the segments. Though they were the most highly educated segment, they were also more likely than others to feel they needed to improve their skills and qualifications before they could get further at work.

· “Motivated but cautious”: All members in this group were single parents, and the majority struggled with their bills and wanted to progress to increase their hours and earnings. However, they were concerned that changes to their work may disrupt their caring responsibilities without making them financially better-off. Like the “Keen to progress” segment, members of this segment tended to be younger and better educated than the future cohort overall. However, they were currently doing mainly low-skilled jobs with limited opportunities for progression. They felt they needed to develop their skills and qualifications further to increase their chance of getting a new and well-paid job.

· “Care-focused”: Members of this segment were focused on their caring responsibilities and did not want to do anything that would disrupt this commitment. This group comprised mainly younger parents and a quarter also had caring responsibilities for an adult.

· “Stable but stuck”: Members of this group were the least satisfied with their job but were reluctant to make a change. They were negative about working more hours and had taken the least action to progress in the past 12 months. Many had been in their current, mainly low-skilled, job for a long period of time and were uninterested in acquiring new skills.

· “Stable and content”: Members of this segment had been in their job for a relatively long time because they enjoyed it. There was limited appetite to change job or increase their hours in order to earn more, and they were least likely of all the segments to say they struggled with their bills.

Methodology

This research comprised a quantitative telephone survey conducted between 24th April and 30th September 2019 with 3,114 in-work claimants who were in receipt of Working Tax Credits, Child Tax Credits and/or Housing Benefit. The survey was followed by 60 qualitative depth interviews with individuals (including some paired interviews with both the claimant and their partner), between 10th September and 15th October 2019, and 11 focus groups, between 15th and 24th October 2019. Survey data were weighted based on DWP’s forecast for the size and composition of the future cohort group in December 2023.