Ipsos Political Pulse March 2020

Three in ten (28%) say that since the referendum they have become more positive about the impact immigration has on Britain (up 8 points since May 2018) while a quarter (26%) disagree. Over a third (35%) of Leave voters say they have become more positive (up from 21% in May 2018). This compares to a quarter (25%) of Remain voters (up 3 points, although Remain voters are likely to have been more positive to begin with). 

Opinion is divided on why people say they have become more positive towards immigration, although perceptions that immigration will reduce due to Brexit are becoming more important. Two in five (39%) say they are more positive (or less worried) because they have been reassured that fewer immigrants will come to the UK now that Britain has actually left the EU (up 12 points since 2018). This compares with 37% who say that the discussions since the referendum have highlighted how much immigrants contribute to the UK (down 2 points) and 18% saying there were fewer immigrants coming to the UK already (down 1 point).

Fewer people also now believe that the number of EU immigrants coming into the UK has increased since Britain voted to leave the EU in 2016. One in five (19%) think the number of EU immigrants coming to the UK since the referendum has increased, down from 24% in March 2018. Two in five (39%) believe the number has decreased (which is unchanged since 2018).  When it comes to the number of EU immigrants living in their local area most Britons believe there has been no change to the number (55%) since the referendum (which is the same proportion as 2018). One in five (18%) think the number has increased (6 points lower than 2018) while 12% say it has decreased (up 3 points since 2018).

Commenting on the findings, Ipsos Research Director Kully Kaur-Ballagan said:

Over the last few years, we have seen that people have become more positive about immigration and this latest study shows that opinion remains split on why this is the case. There has, however, been a notable increase in those saying it is because they feel that fewer immigrants will come to the UK now that we have left the EU - this is particularly the case among Leave voters. A sense that numbers will reduce may be in response to the government’s announcement of the new points-based immigration system in February this year. However, this study was conducted before the COVID-19 emergency, which has highlighted many issues around shortages in key sectors such as the NHS and agriculture and public opinion to restricting immigration among some groups may now be less supportive.           

Technical Note:

• Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,123 British adults aged 18+. Interviews were conducted online: 28 February – 2 March 2020.  Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.