MORI Election Update: Accurate Final Polls

BBC/ITV News Exit Poll

The results of the MORI/NOP exit poll were released at 10pm on Thursday 5 May. This is a prediction survey, designed to project the number of seats in the House of Commons, as well as the share of the vote for the main parties. It is based on exit interviews with more than 20,000 voters at 120 polling stations across the country. The poll data were sent to a group of academics commissioned by the broadcasters whose analysis resulted in the prediction of a 66 seat majority. At the time of writing, Labour seems likely to finish with a majority of 67 seats:

The national (GB) share of the vote projected by the exit poll is 37% Labour, 33% Conservative and 22% Liberal Democrat.

The current GB share of the vote from seats counted is 36% Labour, 33% Conservative and 23% Liberal Democrat.

Links:

news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/constituencies/default.stm

media.guardian.co.uk/site/story/0,14173,1478206,00.html

MORI/Evening Standard Final Poll

MORI's final election campaign poll was published in the London Evening Standard on Thursday 5th May. It is based on 1,628 telephone interviews with adults across Great Britain on Tuesday 3rd May and Wednesday 4th May.

The voting intention figures from the poll were: Labour 38%, Conservative 33%, Liberal Democrat 23%, others 7%.

The current GB share of the vote from seats counted is 36% Labour, 33% Conservative and 23% Liberal Democrat.

Links:

www.ipsos-mori.com/polls/2005/es050504.shtml

www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/articles/18389259?source=Evening%20Standard

Other Links:

For full details of MORI's 2005 election research programme, see: www.ipsos-mori.com/election2005

For a breakdown of the election results, see:

For details of the British Polling Council, see: www.britishpollingcouncil.org