MORI/Sunday Times Election Panel 1992

A series of four surveys with the same panel of electors during the 1992 general election campaign

MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,544 adults aged 18+ who said they were registered to vote, in 65 constituencies across Great Britain on 11-12 March 1992. Of these, 1,257 were then re-interviewed on 18-20 March 1992, 1,292 were re-interviewed on 25-27 March 1992 and 1,265 were re-interviewed on 1-3 April 1992. All interviews were conducted face-to-face in home. Data were weighted to match the profile of the population and, in the recall waves, to match the responses of the whole of the original sample on key questions. Please note that some questions were asked at different points in the questionnaire in the different surveys - for comparison purposes, all instances of the same question are presented together in the tables below.

Q. How do you think you are going to vote in the general election on April 9th? Q. (If undecided or refused) Which party are you most inclined to support?

  Survey I (11-12 March)  Survey II (18-20 March)  Survey III (25-27 March)  Survey IV (1-3 April)
  % % % %
Conservative 40 38 38 37
Labour 39 41 40 39
Liberal Democrat 18 19 20 21
SNP/Plaid Cymru 2 2 2 2
Green 1 * *
Other * * *
Percentages exclude: Would not vote/undecided/refused 14 11 9 6

Q. (To all naming a party at the voting intention questions) Have you definitely decided to vote for [party named] or is there a chance you may change your mind before the election?

  Survey I (11-12 March)  Survey II (18-20 March)  Survey III (25-27 March)  Survey IV (1-3 April)
  % % % %
Definitely decided 64 73 81 88
May change mind 32 24 18 11
Don't know 4 3 1 1
Long-term trends on this question

Q. (Surveys II & IV only) Which of the following comes closest to your reasons for voting for [party named]?

   Survey II (18-20 March)  Survey IV (1-3 April)
  % %
It is the party that most represents your views 85 87
The party you most support has little chance of winning in this constituency so you will vote for the [party named] to try to keep another party out 11 11
No opinion 4 2
Long-term trends on this question, including breakdown by party

Q. (Surveys II & IV only) How important is it to you personally which party wins the general election?

   Survey II (18-20 March)  Survey IV (1-3 April)
  % %
Very important 47 55
Fairly important 33 31
Not particularly important 13 10
Not at all important 5 3
No opinion 2 1
Long-term trends on this question

Q. A lot of people aren't sure whether they'll vote at the general election. How likely are you to vote at the general election?

  Survey I (11-12 March)  Survey II (18-20 March)  Survey III (25-27 March)  Survey IV (1-3 April)
  % % % %
Absolutely certain will not vote 3 3 3 3
Fairly certain will not vote 2 2 1 1
Not certain whether or not will vote 6 5 4 3
Fairly certain will vote 16 13 10 8
Absolutely certain will vote 71 77 81 85
Don't know 1 1 1 *

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Major is doing his job as Prime Minister? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Kinnock is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Ashdown is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?

  Survey I (11-12 March)  Survey II (18-20 March)  Survey III (25-27 March)  Survey IV (1-3 April)
  % % % %
Government
Satisfied 31 32 34 34
Dissatisfied 63 63 62 62
Don't know 6 5 4 4
Major
Satisfied 54 52 52 50
Dissatisfied 40 43 45 48
Don't know 6 5 3 2
Kinnock
Satisfied 38 45 46 48
Dissatisfied 50 47 48 46
Don't know 12 8 6 6
Ashdown
Satisfied 59 62 62 66
Dissatisfied 21 22 24 22
Don't know 20 16 14 12

Q. (Survey I & III only) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Norman Lamont is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer? Q. (Survey I & III only) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way John Smith is doing his job as shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer?

  Survey I (11-12 March) Survey III (25-27 March)
  % %
Lamont
Satisfied 37 36
Dissatisfied 50 48
Don't know 13 16
Smith
Satisfied 42 51
Dissatisfied 24 23
Don't know 34 26
Satisfaction with the Chancellor: long-term trends

Q. (Survey I & III only) And who would you trust most to manage Britain's economy?

  Survey I (11-12 March) Survey III (25-27 March)
  % %
Norman Lamont 35 31
John Smith 32 39
Neither 14 10
Both equally 4 4
Don't know 15 16

Q. (Survey I only) Generally speaking, do you think John Major has done a good job or a bad job with regard to...?

  Survey I (11-12 March)
  %
...managing the economy generally?
Good job 47
Bad job 43
No opinion 10
...controlling inflation
Good job 55
Bad job 36
No opinion 9
...reducing unemployment
Good job 10
Bad job 80
No opinion 10

Q. (Survey I only) Do you think the Budget proposals generally are a good thing or a bad thing...?

  Survey I (11-12 March)
  %
...for you personally? 35
Good thing 36
Bad thing 29
Neither/no opinion
...for the country as a whole?
Good thing 34
Bad thing 42
Neither/no opinion 24
Long-term trends on these questions

Q. (Survey I only) Do you think the Chancellor should or should not have done each of the following in his recent budget?

  Survey I (11-12 March)
  %
Raised the ceiling on basic rate mortgage tax relief
Should 51
Should not 25
No opinion 24
Cut the basic rate of income tax
Should 46
Should not 45
No opinion 9
Raised the threshold at which people start paying income tax
Should 76
Should not 16
No opinion 8
Extended tax relief on childcare
Should 71
Should not 15
No opinion 14
Cut the tax on new cars
Should 58
Should not 28
No opinion 14
Lowered VAT
Should 75
Should not 19
No opinion 6

Q. (Survey I only) This card shows some of the ways the Government could tackle this country's economic problems. Which of these do you think would be best for Britain? (Just read out the letter.)

  Survey I (11-12 March)
  %
(a) Cut taxes and cut government spending 19
(b) Cut taxes and increase government spending 19      
(c) Leave things as they are now 21      
(d) Raise taxes and cut government spending 8
(e) Raise taxes and raise government spending 21
Don't know 12

Q. (Survey I only) Do you think the Budget will or will not...?

  Survey I (11-12 March)
  %
Reduce unemployment
Will 14
Will not 78
No opinion 8
Keep inflation down
Will 46
Will not 43
No opinion 11
Make the rich richer and the poor poorer
Will 55
Will not 34
No opinion 11
Help to get Britain's economy going
Will 34
Will not 54
No opinion 12
Improve the chances of the Conservatives winning the election
Will 37
Will not 51
No opinion 12
Long-term trends on most of these questions

Q. (Survey I only) In your view, which should be a higher priority for the government?

  Survey I (11-12 March)
  %
(a) Controlling inflation 30
(b) Achieving a low level of unemployment 65      
Neither/don't know 5

Q. (Survey I only) The Labour Party has said that if the government lowered the basic rate of tax in the Budget, a Labour government would return it to 25p. Would you personally support or oppose a Labour government returning the basic rate to 25p?

  Survey I (11-12 March)
  %
Support 48
Oppose 39      
No opinion 13

Q. (Survey I only) From this card, what do you think will be the outcome of the next general election?

  Survey I (11-12 March)
  %
An overall majority of Conservative MPs 28
An overall majority of Labour MPs 17
No overall majority and the Liberal Democrats sharing power with the Conservative Party 22
No overall majority and the Liberal Democrats sharing power with the Labour Party 21
Neither/don't know 12
Long-term trends on this question

Q. (Survey I only) How interested would you say you are in news about the election?

  Survey I (11-12 March)
  %
Very interested 30
Fairly interested 42      
Not particularly interested 20      
Not at all interested 8      
No opinion *
Long-term trends on this question

Q. Which political party do you think would be most likely to introduce policies that improve your standard of living?

  Survey I (11-12 March)  Survey II (18-20 March)  Survey III (25-27 March)  Survey IV (1-3 April)
  % % % %
Conservative 37 39 38 37
Labour 34 36 39 39
Liberal Democrat 11 9 11 13
Other 1 1 1 1
None 7 6 5 4
Don't know 10 9 6 6

Q. Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister - Mr Major, Mr Kinnock or Mr Ashdown?

  Survey I (11-12 March)  Survey II (18-20 March)  Survey III (25-27 March)  Survey IV (1-3 April)
  % % % %
Mr Major 44 44 43 41
Mr Kinnock 26 28 32 32
Mr Ashdown 20 18 18 20
Don't know 10 10 7 7
Long-term trends on this question

Q. Which two or three issues will be most important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for at the general election? (UNPROMPTED ANSWERS)

  Survey I (11-12 March)  Survey II (18-20 March)  Survey III (25-27 March)  Survey IV (1-3 April)
  % % % %
AIDS * * * *
Defence generally 5 5 6 6
Disarmament 1 1 1 1
Drugs 1 1 * 1
Education/schools 26 39 42 48
EEC/Common Market 2 2 3 2
Foreign policy generally 1 1 1 1
Housing 8 8 8 10
Immigration 2 2 2 2
Inflation/prices 23 20 20 20
Interest rates 6 6 6 6
Law & order 6 8 7 8
Leisure amenities/facilities 1 1 1 *
NHS/health care 40 50 60 59
Northern Ireland 1 * * 1
Nuclear power * * * *
Nuclear weapons * 1 * *
Pollution/the environment 5 5 5 6
Public transport 2 2 2 2
Rent/rates 2 1 1 1
Tax cuts 9 13 12 13
Trade unions 1 1 1 1
The City/financial scandals * * * *
Unemployment/jobs 47 39 40 38
Child benefit n/a 2 3 3
Pensions n/a 10 11 11
Poll tax n/a 4 3 4
Other 37 20 18 21
Don't know 8 5 4 3

Q. (Surveys I & IV only) On balance do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

  Survey I (11-12 March)  Survey IV (1-3 April)
% %
"In the long term this government's policies will improve the state of Britain's economy"
Agree 42* 45
Disagree 46* 48
Neither/no opinion 12* 7
"A vote for the Liberal Democrats is a wasted vote"
Agree 47 46
Disagree 46 50
Neither/no opinion 7 4
"The Conservative party has plans to privatise the NHS if they win the General Election"
Agree 46 52
Disagree 44 39
Neither/no opinion 10 9
"Most people will pay more in taxes if Labour wins the General Election"
Agree 69 70
Disagree 22 24
Neither/no opinion 9 6
"The trade unions would have too much power under a Labour government"
Agree 50 53
Disagree 41 41
Neither/no opinion 9 6
"The Conservative government is responsible for the current economic recession"
Agree 56 59
Disagree 37 36
Neither/no opinion 7 5
"The country cannot afford Labour's spending plans"
Agree 48 52
Disagree 35 36
Neither/no opinion 17 12
*In survey I this question was asked earlier in the survey as a standalone, "Q. On balance, do you agree or disagree that in the long term this government's policies will improve the state of Britain's economy?", rather than as part of the battery of agree/disagree questions

Q. (Survey III only) If neither the Conservatives nor Labour win an overall majority in the House of Commons at the General Election, which of these options would you prefer?

   Survey III (25-27 March)
  %
Conservative/Liberal Democrat government 30
Labour/Liberal Democrat government 31
A quick election to decide who should form a government 36  
Other 1  
Don't know/no opinion 2
Preferences in a hung parliament: long-term trends

Q. (Survey III only) And if no party wins an overall majority of seats in the House of Commons, which of these politicians would you most like to see as Prime Minister? Q. And who would be your second choice?

  Survey III (25-27 March)
  First choice First or second choice
  % %
John Smith 11 25
Michael Heseltine 5 22
David Steel 2 9
Roy Hattersley * 4
Paddy Ashdown 17 39
Neil Kinnock 24 34
John Major 35 44
Chris Patten 1 4
Alan Beith * 1
Kenneth Baker * 2
Other 1 2
None of these/don't know 3 3

Q. (Survey III only) Looking at this card, how do you feel about the amount of coverage the newspapers have been giving to the election campaign? Have they given much too much coverage, a little too much, about the right amount of coverage, a little too little coverage or much too little coverage? Q. And how do you feel about the amount of coverage given to the election campaign on television? Q. And how do you feel about the amount of coverage given to the election campaign on the radio?

  Survey III (25-27 March)
  Newspapers Television Radio
  % % %
Much too much 34 45 13
A little too much 22 23 8
About the right amount 32 27 32
A little too little 1 2 4
Much too little * * 2
No opinion 10 3 41
Long-term trends on these questions

Q. (Survey I & III only) Over the past 4/5 years, do you think this government has or has not...? Q. (Survey IV only) If the Conservative government is re-elected, do you think it will or will not...?

  Survey I (11-12 March) Survey III (25-27 March) Survey IV (1-3 April)
% % %
...kept/keep its promises
Has/Will 36 38 41
Has not/Will not 55 55 52
Don't know 9 7 7
...played an important part in world affairs

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