MORI/Sunday Times Election Panel 1992
A series of four surveys with the same panel of electors during the 1992 general election campaign
MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,544 adults aged 18+ who said they were registered to vote, in 65 constituencies across Great Britain on 11-12 March 1992. Of these, 1,257 were then re-interviewed on 18-20 March 1992, 1,292 were re-interviewed on 25-27 March 1992 and 1,265 were re-interviewed on 1-3 April 1992. All interviews were conducted face-to-face in home. Data were weighted to match the profile of the population and, in the recall waves, to match the responses of the whole of the original sample on key questions. Please note that some questions were asked at different points in the questionnaire in the different surveys - for comparison purposes, all instances of the same question are presented together in the tables below.
Q. How do you think you are going to vote in the general election on April 9th? Q. (If undecided or refused) Which party are you most inclined to support?
Survey I (11-12 March) | Survey II (18-20 March) | Survey III (25-27 March) | Survey IV (1-3 April) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
% | % | % | % | |
Conservative | 40 | 38 | 38 | 37 |
Labour | 39 | 41 | 40 | 39 |
Liberal Democrat | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
SNP/Plaid Cymru | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Green | 1 | * | * | |
Other | * | * | * | |
Percentages exclude: Would not vote/undecided/refused | 14 | 11 | 9 | 6 |
Q. (To all naming a party at the voting intention questions) Have you definitely decided to vote for [party named] or is there a chance you may change your mind before the election?
Survey I (11-12 March) | Survey II (18-20 March) | Survey III (25-27 March) | Survey IV (1-3 April) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
% | % | % | % | |
Definitely decided | 64 | 73 | 81 | 88 |
May change mind | 32 | 24 | 18 | 11 |
Don't know | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Q. (Surveys II & IV only) Which of the following comes closest to your reasons for voting for [party named]?
Survey II (18-20 March) | Survey IV (1-3 April) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
% | % | |||
It is the party that most represents your views | 85 | 87 | ||
The party you most support has little chance of winning in this constituency so you will vote for the [party named] to try to keep another party out | 11 | 11 | ||
No opinion | 4 | 2 |
Q. (Surveys II & IV only) How important is it to you personally which party wins the general election?
Survey II (18-20 March) | Survey IV (1-3 April) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
% | % | |||
Very important | 47 | 55 | ||
Fairly important | 33 | 31 | ||
Not particularly important | 13 | 10 | ||
Not at all important | 5 | 3 | ||
No opinion | 2 | 1 |
Q. A lot of people aren't sure whether they'll vote at the general election. How likely are you to vote at the general election?
Survey I (11-12 March) | Survey II (18-20 March) | Survey III (25-27 March) | Survey IV (1-3 April) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
% | % | % | % | |
Absolutely certain will not vote | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Fairly certain will not vote | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Not certain whether or not will vote | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Fairly certain will vote | 16 | 13 | 10 | 8 |
Absolutely certain will vote | 71 | 77 | 81 | 85 |
Don't know | 1 | 1 | 1 | * |
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Major is doing his job as Prime Minister? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Kinnock is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Ashdown is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?
Survey I (11-12 March) | Survey II (18-20 March) | Survey III (25-27 March) | Survey IV (1-3 April) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
% | % | % | % | |
Government | ||||
Satisfied | 31 | 32 | 34 | 34 |
Dissatisfied | 63 | 63 | 62 | 62 |
Don't know | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Major | ||||
Satisfied | 54 | 52 | 52 | 50 |
Dissatisfied | 40 | 43 | 45 | 48 |
Don't know | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
Kinnock | ||||
Satisfied | 38 | 45 | 46 | 48 |
Dissatisfied | 50 | 47 | 48 | 46 |
Don't know | 12 | 8 | 6 | 6 |
Ashdown | ||||
Satisfied | 59 | 62 | 62 | 66 |
Dissatisfied | 21 | 22 | 24 | 22 |
Don't know | 20 | 16 | 14 | 12 |
Q. (Survey I & III only) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Norman Lamont is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer? Q. (Survey I & III only) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way John Smith is doing his job as shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer?
Survey I (11-12 March) | Survey III (25-27 March) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
% | % | |||
Lamont | ||||
Satisfied | 37 | 36 | ||
Dissatisfied | 50 | 48 | ||
Don't know | 13 | 16 | ||
Smith | ||||
Satisfied | 42 | 51 | ||
Dissatisfied | 24 | 23 | ||
Don't know | 34 | 26 |
Q. (Survey I & III only) And who would you trust most to manage Britain's economy?
Survey I (11-12 March) | Survey III (25-27 March) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
% | % | |||
Norman Lamont | 35 | 31 | ||
John Smith | 32 | 39 | ||
Neither | 14 | 10 | ||
Both equally | 4 | 4 | ||
Don't know | 15 | 16 |
Q. (Survey I only) Generally speaking, do you think John Major has done a good job or a bad job with regard to...?
Survey I (11-12 March) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
% | ||||
...managing the economy generally? | ||||
Good job | 47 | |||
Bad job | 43 | |||
No opinion | 10 | |||
...controlling inflation | ||||
Good job | 55 | |||
Bad job | 36 | |||
No opinion | 9 | |||
...reducing unemployment | ||||
Good job | 10 | |||
Bad job | 80 | |||
No opinion | 10 |
Q. (Survey I only) Do you think the Budget proposals generally are a good thing or a bad thing...?
Survey I (11-12 March) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
% | ||||
...for you personally? | 35 | |||
Good thing | 36 | |||
Bad thing | 29 | |||
Neither/no opinion | ||||
...for the country as a whole? | ||||
Good thing | 34 | |||
Bad thing | 42 | |||
Neither/no opinion | 24 |
Q. (Survey I only) Do you think the Chancellor should or should not have done each of the following in his recent budget?
Survey I (11-12 March) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
% | ||||
Raised the ceiling on basic rate mortgage tax relief | ||||
Should | 51 | |||
Should not | 25 | |||
No opinion | 24 | |||
Cut the basic rate of income tax | ||||
Should | 46 | |||
Should not | 45 | |||
No opinion | 9 | |||
Raised the threshold at which people start paying income tax | ||||
Should | 76 | |||
Should not | 16 | |||
No opinion | 8 | |||
Extended tax relief on childcare | ||||
Should | 71 | |||
Should not | 15 | |||
No opinion | 14 | |||
Cut the tax on new cars | ||||
Should | 58 | |||
Should not | 28 | |||
No opinion | 14 | |||
Lowered VAT | ||||
Should | 75 | |||
Should not | 19 | |||
No opinion | 6 |
Q. (Survey I only) This card shows some of the ways the Government could tackle this country's economic problems. Which of these do you think would be best for Britain? (Just read out the letter.)
Survey I (11-12 March) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
% | ||||
(a) Cut taxes and cut government spending | 19 | |||
(b) Cut taxes and increase government spending | 19 | |||
(c) Leave things as they are now | 21 | |||
(d) Raise taxes and cut government spending | 8 | |||
(e) Raise taxes and raise government spending | 21 | |||
Don't know | 12 |
Q. (Survey I only) Do you think the Budget will or will not...?
Survey I (11-12 March) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
% | ||||
Reduce unemployment | ||||
Will | 14 | |||
Will not | 78 | |||
No opinion | 8 | |||
Keep inflation down | ||||
Will | 46 | |||
Will not | 43 | |||
No opinion | 11 | |||
Make the rich richer and the poor poorer | ||||
Will | 55 | |||
Will not | 34 | |||
No opinion | 11 | |||
Help to get Britain's economy going | ||||
Will | 34 | |||
Will not | 54 | |||
No opinion | 12 | |||
Improve the chances of the Conservatives winning the election | ||||
Will | 37 | |||
Will not | 51 | |||
No opinion | 12 |
Q. (Survey I only) In your view, which should be a higher priority for the government?
Survey I (11-12 March) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
% | ||||
(a) Controlling inflation | 30 | |||
(b) Achieving a low level of unemployment | 65 | |||
Neither/don't know | 5 |
Q. (Survey I only) The Labour Party has said that if the government lowered the basic rate of tax in the Budget, a Labour government would return it to 25p. Would you personally support or oppose a Labour government returning the basic rate to 25p?
Survey I (11-12 March) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
% | ||||
Support | 48 | |||
Oppose | 39 | |||
No opinion | 13 |
Q. (Survey I only) From this card, what do you think will be the outcome of the next general election?
Survey I (11-12 March) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
% | ||||
An overall majority of Conservative MPs | 28 | |||
An overall majority of Labour MPs | 17 | |||
No overall majority and the Liberal Democrats sharing power with the Conservative Party | 22 | |||
No overall majority and the Liberal Democrats sharing power with the Labour Party | 21 | |||
Neither/don't know | 12 |
Q. (Survey I only) How interested would you say you are in news about the election?
Survey I (11-12 March) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
% | ||||
Very interested | 30 | |||
Fairly interested | 42 | |||
Not particularly interested | 20 | |||
Not at all interested | 8 | |||
No opinion | * |
Q. Which political party do you think would be most likely to introduce policies that improve your standard of living?
Survey I (11-12 March) | Survey II (18-20 March) | Survey III (25-27 March) | Survey IV (1-3 April) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
% | % | % | % | |
Conservative | 37 | 39 | 38 | 37 |
Labour | 34 | 36 | 39 | 39 |
Liberal Democrat | 11 | 9 | 11 | 13 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
None | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Don't know | 10 | 9 | 6 | 6 |
Q. Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister - Mr Major, Mr Kinnock or Mr Ashdown?
Survey I (11-12 March) | Survey II (18-20 March) | Survey III (25-27 March) | Survey IV (1-3 April) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
% | % | % | % | |
Mr Major | 44 | 44 | 43 | 41 |
Mr Kinnock | 26 | 28 | 32 | 32 |
Mr Ashdown | 20 | 18 | 18 | 20 |
Don't know | 10 | 10 | 7 | 7 |
Q. Which two or three issues will be most important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for at the general election? (UNPROMPTED ANSWERS)
Survey I (11-12 March) | Survey II (18-20 March) | Survey III (25-27 March) | Survey IV (1-3 April) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
% | % | % | % | |
AIDS | * | * | * | * |
Defence generally | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
Disarmament | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Drugs | 1 | 1 | * | 1 |
Education/schools | 26 | 39 | 42 | 48 |
EEC/Common Market | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Foreign policy generally | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Housing | 8 | 8 | 8 | 10 |
Immigration | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Inflation/prices | 23 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
Interest rates | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Law & order | 6 | 8 | 7 | 8 |
Leisure amenities/facilities | 1 | 1 | 1 | * |
NHS/health care | 40 | 50 | 60 | 59 |
Northern Ireland | 1 | * | * | 1 |
Nuclear power | * | * | * | * |
Nuclear weapons | * | 1 | * | * |
Pollution/the environment | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
Public transport | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Rent/rates | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Tax cuts | 9 | 13 | 12 | 13 |
Trade unions | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
The City/financial scandals | * | * | * | * |
Unemployment/jobs | 47 | 39 | 40 | 38 |
Child benefit | n/a | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Pensions | n/a | 10 | 11 | 11 |
Poll tax | n/a | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Other | 37 | 20 | 18 | 21 |
Don't know | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Q. (Surveys I & IV only) On balance do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
Survey I (11-12 March) | Survey IV (1-3 April) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
% | % | |||
"In the long term this government's policies will improve the state of Britain's economy" | ||||
Agree | 42* | 45 | ||
Disagree | 46* | 48 | ||
Neither/no opinion | 12* | 7 | ||
"A vote for the Liberal Democrats is a wasted vote" | ||||
Agree | 47 | 46 | ||
Disagree | 46 | 50 | ||
Neither/no opinion | 7 | 4 | ||
"The Conservative party has plans to privatise the NHS if they win the General Election" | ||||
Agree | 46 | 52 | ||
Disagree | 44 | 39 | ||
Neither/no opinion | 10 | 9 | ||
"Most people will pay more in taxes if Labour wins the General Election" | ||||
Agree | 69 | 70 | ||
Disagree | 22 | 24 | ||
Neither/no opinion | 9 | 6 | ||
"The trade unions would have too much power under a Labour government" | ||||
Agree | 50 | 53 | ||
Disagree | 41 | 41 | ||
Neither/no opinion | 9 | 6 | ||
"The Conservative government is responsible for the current economic recession" | ||||
Agree | 56 | 59 | ||
Disagree | 37 | 36 | ||
Neither/no opinion | 7 | 5 | ||
"The country cannot afford Labour's spending plans" | ||||
Agree | 48 | 52 | ||
Disagree | 35 | 36 | ||
Neither/no opinion | 17 | 12 |
Q. (Survey III only) If neither the Conservatives nor Labour win an overall majority in the House of Commons at the General Election, which of these options would you prefer?
Survey III (25-27 March) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
% | ||||
Conservative/Liberal Democrat government | 30 | |||
Labour/Liberal Democrat government | 31 | |||
A quick election to decide who should form a government | 36 | |||
Other | 1 | |||
Don't know/no opinion | 2 |
Q. (Survey III only) And if no party wins an overall majority of seats in the House of Commons, which of these politicians would you most like to see as Prime Minister? Q. And who would be your second choice?
Survey III (25-27 March) | ||
---|---|---|
First choice | First or second choice | |
% | % | |
John Smith | 11 | 25 |
Michael Heseltine | 5 | 22 |
David Steel | 2 | 9 |
Roy Hattersley | * | 4 |
Paddy Ashdown | 17 | 39 |
Neil Kinnock | 24 | 34 |
John Major | 35 | 44 |
Chris Patten | 1 | 4 |
Alan Beith | * | 1 |
Kenneth Baker | * | 2 |
Other | 1 | 2 |
None of these/don't know | 3 | 3 |
Q. (Survey III only) Looking at this card, how do you feel about the amount of coverage the newspapers have been giving to the election campaign? Have they given much too much coverage, a little too much, about the right amount of coverage, a little too little coverage or much too little coverage? Q. And how do you feel about the amount of coverage given to the election campaign on television? Q. And how do you feel about the amount of coverage given to the election campaign on the radio?
Survey III (25-27 March) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Newspapers | Television | Radio | |
% | % | % | |
Much too much | 34 | 45 | 13 |
A little too much | 22 | 23 | 8 |
About the right amount | 32 | 27 | 32 |
A little too little | 1 | 2 | 4 |
Much too little | * | * | 2 |
No opinion | 10 | 3 | 41 |
Q. (Survey I & III only) Over the past 4/5 years, do you think this government has or has not...? Q. (Survey IV only) If the Conservative government is re-elected, do you think it will or will not...?
Survey I (11-12 March) | Survey III (25-27 March) | Survey IV (1-3 April) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
% | % | % | ||
...kept/keep its promises | ||||
Has/Will | 36 | 38 | 41 | |
Has not/Will not | 55 | 55 | 52 | |
Don't know | 9 | 7 | 7 | |
...played an important part in world affairs | ||||
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