The Observer Election Research - Poll 1

MORI's first election special research for the Observer and Sunday Mirror demonstrates the importance that turnout could have in the general election on 5th May. In this research, conducted between 7 and 9 April, 61% of the electorate say they are absolutely certain to vote -- this is the highest figure measured by MORI since this question was first regularly asked in November 2002. Crucially, during this time, many more Labour supporters told us they were certain to vote, compared with the weekend before, which means that at present Labour have a comfortable lead over the Conservatives.

The Observer/Sunday Mirror poll also provides a snapshot of the "state of the nation" with questions exploring issues such as work/life balance, attitudes to tax and spend, optimism over public services and immigration -- as well as an update on British attitudes towards the Royal Family.

Topline Results

• MORI interviewed (1,004) British adults aged 18+ by telephone between 7-9 April 2005
• Data are weighted to the national population profile
• An (*) indicates a finding of less than 0.5%, but greater than zero
• Where percentages do not add up to exactly 100% this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't knows" or to multiple answers

Voting -- all absolutely certain to vote -- 61%

QA How do you intend to vote in the General Election on May 5th? Will you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or for another party? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT QA QB Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: All absolutely certain to vote (627)

Voting -- all naming a party

QA How do you intend to vote in the General Election on May 5th? Will you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or for another party? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT QA QB Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: All naming a party (716)

QC And how likely will you be to vote in the General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?

Q1 Have you definitely decided to vote for the [PARTY NAMED AT QA OR QB] party or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote? Base: All naming a party they will vote for (716)

 See also Trends on this question

Q2 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?

Q3 The things people can buy and do -- their housing, furniture, food, cars, recreation and travel -- make up their standard of living. How satisfied or dissatisfied do you feel about your standard of living at present? (Is that very or fairly?)

Q4 People have different views about whether it is more important to reduce taxes or keep up government spending. How about you? Which of these statements comes closest to your own view?

Q5 Do you support or oppose taxes being used to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor?

Q6 Thinking about the quality of education over the next few years, do you expect it to:

Q7 Thinking about the quality of healthcare over the next few years, do you expect it to:

Q8 Thinking about the way your area is policed do you expect it to:

Q9 There are different views about how working mothers should combine a career with the care of young children. Which of the following best describes what you think mothers of children age under five should do?

Q10 Do you agree or disagree with the following: There should be more help available for mothers with young children who want to stay at work

Q11 To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? "I feel that I have a good work/life balance"?

Q12 Which one of the following best describes how you feel about your current level of borrowing?

Q13 Which one of these statements comes closest to your views on laws about immigration in Britain?

Q14-Q16 There are different opinions about immigrants from other countries living in Britain. (By immigrants we mean people who come to live in Britain). How much do you agree or disagree with these statements?

Q17 What proportion of people in your neighbourhood are from the same ethnic background as you? Would you say ...

Q18 Most people say they belong either to the middle class or to the working class. If you had to make a choice, would you call yourself middle?

Q19 And which social class would you say your parents belonged to when you started primary school?

Q20 Would you favour Britain becoming a republic or remaining a monarchy?

Q21 Do you think that Prince Charles should or should not give up his right to be the next monarch in favour of his eldest son, Prince William?

Q22 Did you think Prince Charles should be getting married to Camilla Parker-Bowles or do you think they should have continued their relationship outside marriage?

Q23 Do you think Camilla Parker-Bowles should become Queen at Prince Charles' side?

Q24-Q26 There are differing views about the balance between guaranteeing civil liberties and the need to protect the country against terrorism. For each of the following, would you say it is acceptable or unacceptable for British authorities to do this in the fight against terrorism?