Reform UK leads by 12 pts over Labour as both PM and Chancellor hit historic low satisfaction ratings

Ipsos’ latest Political Monitor is now released, with fieldwork carried out 11-17 September 2025.

Voting intention

• Reform UK 34% (n/c vs June 2025), Labour 22% (-3), Conservatives 14% (-1), Liberal Democrats 12% (+1), Green Party 12% (+3), Others 6% (n/c).
• Reform UK holds a lead of + 12 points over Labour.
• Labour’s vote share of 22% is the lowest Ipsos has recorded for the party since June 2009.
• The Conservatives’ 14% share, as was their 15% share in our June poll, continues to be the lowest Ipsos has ever recorded for them, starting from 1976.
• Reform UK is successfully holding on to 9 in 10 of their 2024 voters (89%), while also attracting voters from other parties, especially the Conservatives (39% of 2024 Conservative voters now say they will vote Reform UK).
• The Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats are holding on to about half of their 2024 voters each – Conservatives 47%, Labour 50%, Liberal Democrats 49%.
• Labour are losing voters to a mix of Reform UK (13% of 2024 Labour voters say they will vote Reform UK), Liberal Democrats (10%), and Greens (10%).
• Labour continues to lead among 18-34s (29%), socio-economic groups AB (29% vote intention share), and those with degrees (37%).
• Reform UK’s strongest support comes from socio-economic groups C2DE (51%), those aged 50+ (44%), and non-graduates (44%).

Satisfaction ratings

• Going into the Labour conference, both Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves’ satisfaction ratings have reached historic lows.
• Only 13% are satisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as Prime Minister (-6 vs June 2025), with 79% dissatisfied (+6), a net rating of -66. This is the lowest satisfaction rating recorded by Ipsos for any Prime Minister going back to 1977, worse than previous lows recorded by Rishi Sunak just months before the general election (-59, April 2024), and John Major (-59, August 1994).
• 13% are satisfied with the way Rachel Reeves is doing her job as Chancellor of the Exchequer, and 69% dissatisfied, a net rating of -56. Her satisfaction scores are comparable to Kwasi Kwarteng in October 2022, just after the mini-budget (12% satisfied, 65% dissatisfied, net -53).
• Government satisfaction has also declined since June, with 12% satisfied (-4 vs June) and 82% dissatisfied (+6), net of -70.
• Among Labour’s own supporters, only 42% are satisfied with the government and 47% with Keir Starmer.

• 14% are satisfied with Kemi Badenoch as Leader of the Opposition, 61% dissatisfied, net -47 (little changed from June when it was -49). Just a third of Conservative supporters (33%) are satisfied with Kemi Badenoch.
• A third (34%) of the public are satisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as Leader of Reform UK, while 53% are dissatisfied, for a net score of -19 (a slight dip from June’s net score of -15). Among Reform UK supporters, nine in ten (89%) are satisfied with Nigel Farage.
• 23% are satisfied with Ed Davey as leader of the Liberal Democrats (64% of LibDem supporters), 38% dissatisfied, net -15, unchanged from June.

Most capable Prime Minister

• Among the three main party leaders, Nigel Farage has a small lead as most capable Prime Minister (25%), while 19% choose Keir Starmer and 9% Kemi Badenoch. Yet there is little enthusiasm for any of the party leaders, with nearly half (47%) not picking any of the three.
• Reform UK voters overwhelmingly back Nigel Farage (77%) as best Prime Minister, while 63% of Labour supporters choose Keir Starmer. While 44% of Conservative supporters back Kemi Badenoch, nearly the same share, 42%, do not select any of the three main leaders.

Gideon Skinner, Senior Director of UK Politics at Ipsos, said:

Keir Starmer’s personal satisfaction ratings are the worst for any Prime Minister polled by Ipsos since we first started asking the question in 1977, which shows the scale of the task facing him ahead of the Labour conference. Labour’s share of vote is the lowest we have recorded since 2009 and has dipped three points since June, following a difficult start to the autumn in which he lost his deputy Prime Minister and his Ambassador to the US, and is now facing talk of a potential leadership challenge. But Labour's issues are deeper than changes in personnel - they are losing votes to both left and right, with the public still pessimistic about the state of the economy, immigration and public services, despite his planned relaunch to put a renewed focus on delivery. With a crucial Budget ahead, Rachel Reeves’ personal ratings are comparable to Kwasi Kwarteng’s after the notorious October 2022 Budget, which shows how important it is for the government to start turning around public worries over the economy and public services.

Reform’s 12-point lead confirms the party’s strong performance this year, helped by ongoing public concern over immigration but also wider discontent over the state of the nation, allowing Reform to take on the mantle of change.  Nigel Farage is also viewed as the most capable Prime Minister, but in truth there is little enthusiasm for any of the party leaders, and while one of his strengths is the keen backing he receives from his own base, the rest of the public still have doubts. But there is no sign of a revival for the Conservatives, who still bump along at the lowest vote share we have ever recorded for the party, raising further questions about Kemi Badenoch’s ability to cut through.

Technical note:

• Ipsos interviewed a representative probability sample of 1,157 British adults aged 18+, via the Ipsos UK KnowledgePanel. Data was collected between 11 – 17 September 2025. Panel members are recruited via random probability sampling, by sending letters to randomly selected addresses, which invites them to join an online panel. This approach means every household in the UK had a known and non-zero chance of being selected to join the KnowledgePanel. Those who are digitally excluded are provided with a tablet and free, restricted data connection. A sample of 2,301 adults aged 18+ were invited to take part in the survey. The sample was stratified by nation, age, qualifications and vote at the 2024 general election (as collected immediately after the election). The achieved sample was weighted in two stages:
  • Design weights were applied to correct for the unequal probabilities of a person being selected for a survey, notably residents in smaller households have a higher chance of being selected.
  • Calibration weights were applied through rim weighting to correct for differential non-response. Data was weighted to the adult population profile on age and gender, Government Office region, ethnicity, qualifications, work status and work sector (public sector/other), social grade (office coded), number of cars in household, constituency type, and newspaper readership (print and digital). Population targets were obtained from the 2021/22 Census, ONS population estimates and other large-scale probability surveys.
• A two-part voting intention question is used with prompting on main parties and a follow-up “squeeze” question of those who are undecided or refuse the first question. Prompted parties are: Conservative, Labour, Reform UK, Liberal Democrats, SNP in Scotland and Plaid Cymru in Wales. A turnout filter is used based on two questions: current stated likelihood to vote (at least 9 out of 10 certain to vote) and previous voting behaviour (if they say they “always” or “usually” vote in general elections or that “it depends”).
• All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.
• Note that this is a new methodology implemented since June 2025. It involves a new form of data collection (online random probability panel instead of quota telephone survey), an updated voting intention (which involves prompting for Reform UK), and an updated weighting scheme.  This is based on our learnings during and since the 2024 General Election.  This means that comparisons with previous waves need to be made with caution. In particular, at this stage we are not making direct comparisons with previous satisfaction ratings for opposition party leaders. As always, we continually review our methods, and may make further changes to our methodology in the future.