A third of voters in Holyrood election only made their minds up in the last week

• Ipsos’ post-Holyrood poll shows that a third (32%) of voters only made their minds up about how they would vote within the last week of the campaign, with 1 in 10 (11%) deciding on polling day itself.
• SNP and Reform voters were more likely to have decided earlier, while around 4 in 10 of Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat voters only decided how they would vote in the final week.
• The top reason for not voting in the election was not trusting any of the parties or leaders.
   

Reform UK was most successful in gaining both votes from its supporters

85% of those who voted Reform UK on their constituency vote also voted for them on their list vote. This compared with 66% of both SNP and Labour constituency voters. 

The SNP continues to lead among those who voted Yes to independence in 2014, though the relationship appears slightly weaker than it was in the years immediately after the referendum – 67% of this group voted SNP on their constituency vote and 51% on their list vote. 13% of those who voted Yes in 2014 voted for Reform UK on their constituency vote, and 10% for Scottish Labour.

Reform UK is the most popular party among those who voted to leave the EU in 2016 but falls well short of majority support among this group – 37% of Leave voters voted Reform on their constituency vote and 40% on their list vote.

3 in 10 young people voted Green on their list vote
There were some notable demographic differences in who supported the different parties:

• The SNP dominated the constituency vote among those under 55 – 45% of those under 55 voted SNP, dropping to 31% among those aged 55 or older.
• 30% of young people under 35 voted Green on their list vote – more than voted for any other party.
• Reform UK were relatively more popular among men (18% of men vs. 14% of women voted Reform on their constituency vote) and those qualified below degree level (19% of non-graduates vs. 11% of graduates voted Reform on their constituency vote). They were less popular among those under 35 – 11% of this group voted Reform on their constituency vote, vs. 17% of older age groups.
   

Lack of trust in politicians was the most common reason for not voting
Turnout for the 2026 Holyrood election was substantially down – 53.2%, compared with the record high of 63.5% in 2021. The top reason for not voting in the election not trusting any of the parties or leaders (24% of non-voters), followed by being away on the election day (13%), not being interested in politics or elections (12%), not feeling they knew enough about politics or elections (11%), or feeling that voting does not change anything (11%).

While issues relating to feelings about politics, elections and politicians dominated reasons for not voting, a minority mentioned practical barriers relating to the voting process – not being registered (7%), not being able to get to the polling station or finding it inconvenient to get there (7%), or not receiving a postal vote in time (5%). 3% said they had not received a polling card and 1% that they did not have photo identification, neither of which are required to vote in a Scottish Parliament election provided the person is registered.

SNP more likely to be seen as the party of change by its voters, even after 19 years in office
44% of SNP constituency voters said they voted for them as the party most likely to provide Scotland with the change it needs. This was higher than the proportion of any other party’s voters who said the same – for example, 38% of Reform UK voters said they voted for Reform because it was most likely to provide Scotland with the change it needs, while just 20% of Labour voters gave this as a reason for voting for them.
Feelings about the performance of the SNP government in Scotland was the main reason given for voting Reform UK (55%), Labour (50%) and Conservative (55%).

The NHS was the most important issue to voters overall, followed by independence
Half (50%) of voters said the NHS was among the most important issues in helping them decide how to vote, followed by a third (34%) who mentioned independence. Independence was, however, the most common issue mentioned by SNP constituency voters (62%) and was jointly most important with the NHS among Green list voters (50% mentioned each of these). 

The salience of independence also appears to have increased in the final weeks of the campaign – just 25% mentioned it as an issue they thought would be very important in deciding how they voted in Ipsos’ April 2026 Scottish Political Monitor.

Immigration was a much higher priority for Reform UK voters than for voters for any other party – 76% of Reform UK constituency voters mentioned immigration as a factor in their vote, compared with 28% of Conservative voters, 18% of Labour voters, 16% of Liberal Democrat voters and 15% of SNP voters.
 

Rachel Ormston, Research Director at Ipsos in Scotland, commented: 

Our post-election poll confirms that many voters remained uncertain how they would cast their vote until very shortly before they entered the ballot box. It also highlights the uphill battle other parties face in making further inroads to the SNP’s lead – even after 19 years, the SNP are more likely to be seen as the party of change by their voters than are Labour or Reform among their voters. And all parties should be concerned, particularly after a lower-turnout election, that the most common reason given for not voting at all is not trusting any of the parties or leaders.

Technical notes

• Ipsos interviewed a probability sample of 3,162 adults aged 16+ across Scotland, including 2,809 who had voted in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, via the Ipsos UK KnowledgePanel. Data was collected online between 8th and 13th May 2026.
• Panel members are recruited via random probability sampling, by sending letters to randomly selected addresses, which invites them to join an online panel. This approach means every household in the UK had a known and non-zero chance of being selected to join the KnowledgePanel. Those who are digitally excluded are provided with a tablet and free, restricted data connection. 7,672 panellists aged 16+ resident in Scotland were invited to take part in the survey. The achieved sample was weighted in three stages:
  • Design weights were applied to correct for the unequal probabilities of a person being selected for a survey, notably residents in smaller households have a higher chance of being selected.
  • Calibration weights were applied through rim weighting to correct for differential non-response. Data was weighted to the adult population profile on age and gender, Scottish Parliament region, ethnicity, qualifications, work status and work sector (public sector/other), social grade, area deprivation, and newspaper readership (print and digital). Population targets were obtained from the 2022 Census, ONS population estimates and other large-scale probability surveys.
  • The proportions of voters for each party and non-voters were weighted to the actual results, both on constituency and regional list, within each region.
• All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. It is important to note that these are estimates only, based on people’s answers to a post-election survey immediately after polling day, and will be subject to a margin of error and other potential sources of error.
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories.