The People Behind the Polls
The People Behind the Polls - a series of video diaries and election debate reactions from members of the public during the 2024 General Election.
Meet our participants
WEEK 5 - ELECTION WEEK & BBC HEAD TO HEAD DEBATE|WEEK 4 - IMMIGRATION & BBC HEAD TO HEAD DEBATE|WEEK 3 - NHS AND SOCIAL CARE |WEEK 2 - THE COST OF LIVING AND EDUCATION | WEEK 1 - INTRODUCING PEOPLE BEHIND THE POLLS
WEEK 5 - ELECTION WEEK
1 day under Labour #GE2024
| Weekly Round-up: As our time with The People Behind The Polls draws to a close we spent some time reflecting on what was important to them under a new government and given the lead Labour has had in the polls, specifically a Labour government. |
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Kieren shared
I think it is a change…A different party coming in…A fresh face coming in and kind of starting again, rebuilding relationships, rebuilding the UK…
| Then came Polling Day! Some of our participants had already posted their votes while others took to the polling stations with friends and family in tow. Some were still on the fence up till the end. |
Victoria said
No escaping the news….Nothing I can do to change my mind now so If I’m honest I’m trying to avoid it a little as I did feel quite on the fence in my decision
| We stayed up on July 4th with our eyes peeled to watch the results roll in along with our participants. Some of them were uncertain whether things would swing in their local area or if it would remain the same. One thing was for sure everyone was open to change of some kind. When the final results came in many were surprised at the lead Labour took particularly for our participants like Liz in Wales and Martin in Northern Ireland. Those who are welcoming of a Labour government do so cautiously, knowing that they will need time to implement any changes outlined in their manifesto. A few still question whether it is possible for the Labour manifesto to even be achieved. Many questions remain unanswered. |
| However that brings us to an end of our time with the people behind the polls. Join the team behind the people behind the polls for a special podcast next week to reflect on what we learned from our participants, what these findings mean for a new Labour government and the kinds of research civil service may find useful. |
WEEK 4 - IMMIGRATION & BBC HEAD TO HEAD DEBATE
5 days until #GE2024
| Weekly Round-up: The second head-to-head debate between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak was the highlight of the week. This provided an opportunity for us to watch the debate along with our participants and follow-up with a focus group to discuss how much closer everyone was to making a decision. Additionally, we did a deep dive on a topic that has divided many: immigration. |
| One of the main concerns about immigration is the perceived impact on local services such as the NHS and schools. This is particularly true for those who feel they don’t have easy access to these services themselves. Another major concern is that neither Labour or the Conservatives had a clear plan on how to manage illegal immigration. This is in contrast to Farage, who was referenced as the leader with the clearest plan. |
| Jack and Adam highlight the need for safe routes of entry particularly to avoid the loss of life. Eamonn and Liz highlighted some of the benefit’s immigrants bring to the country particularly when it relates to skills. Australia’s point system was the shining example of something we could look towards to improve our system and focus on bringing in people through legal routes to help improve our economy for those like Victoria, Peggy and Naomi. |
Eamonn stated
We need to take a more balanced view and understand the benefits that migrants make to this country and you can always find scary stories about illegal immigrants who are a fraction…the Conservative government have let in more than was ever the case
| Participants zeroed in on how the leaders presented themselves and any unresolved questions during this week’s Leader's debate. While some tuned into a debate of this style for the first time and expected it to be more ‘structured and organised’ others have been following along for a while and felt the same content had been repeated. |
| Starmer was criticised for relying heavily on his CV across different government departments and his humble upbringing while Sunak came across as softer for the first time by discussing his children. There was no love lost between the candidates as demonstrated in their interactions with each other. Starmer highlighting that Sunak was out of touch was well received, including Rose agreeing that he was ‘bringing him back down’ and Jack noting the quick rebuttal. While Sunak hammered home all that would be lost under a Labour government urging the public not to ‘surrender’. However, when it came time to discuss the issues Starmer received the most criticism on Immigration with participants like Liz looking for the figures and Adam looking for a proper plan. There was a split on whether Sunak’s experience as Chancellor put him ahead of Starmer or whether his actions across the campaign were a sign of desperation to secure seats for the Conservatives. |
| At the end the majority of our participants in Cohort 2 have a clearer picture on who they will vote for, with some already sending their postal vote. However a few have questions unanswered across areas like Education, Health & Social Care, Candidate Legitimacy, Devolved Nations and the Environment. In the campaign's final week, we will be following our participants on voting day and exploring their reactions to the election result. |
WEEK 3 - NHS AND SOCIAL CARE
13 days until #GE2024
| Weekly Round-up As we get closer to election day, our participants become more critical of the proposals (or lack thereof) that each party presents to them. This week we spent time discussing the NHS & social care, the environment, and local vs national issues. Across the board, participants support the legacy of the NHS, seeing it as a ‘gem’ and would love it to be improved in the future by having more staff and better pay. This is particularly important for those who have received high-quality or life-saving care. |
Ipsos Public Services May 2024
| Unsurprisingly many participants have had negative experiences with NHS waiting lists particularly participants like Martin, Grant and Victoria who have children and older participants such as Liz. This has resulted in some seeking out private healthcare when the wait becomes too long. However, when the cost is too high this isn’t an easy option for pensioners like Liz who weigh up finding tens of thousands for joint replacements or waiting years in pain on the NHS list. |
| Policies that have been shared in this area do not build confidence for participants. Additionally, some older participants feel that social care is a missing puzzle piece. Instead, they want to see an actionable plan to reduce the waiting list number and waiting times, in general, to help them decide on polling day. |
| The environment and climate change When it comes to the environment, participants centre on consumer policies rather than their roles as citizens in climate change. However, they would be receptive if the government did more. Tasks such as recycling or using public transport are easy when they are accessible but changes which require costs are often frowned upon such as clean air zones. |
| Next week we will discuss Immigration policies and watch the debate along with our participants – stay tuned! |
WEEK 2 - THE COST OF LIVING AND EDUCATION
20 days until #GE2024
Having to scrimp and save just to make it through to payday
– Adam, 32, South East
- The cost of living crisis looms large in our voters’ lives meaning cutbacks and cash struggles. Which of the parties are reassuring voters about their financial stability?
- Parents are struggling with the crippling costs of childcare while balancing work commitments. Will announcements on childcare support cut through?
- Education is a big priority for our teachers, parents and young voters. The quality and quantity of schooling provision is a key concern, so can the parties convince them they’ll invest to improve? And what do job prospects look like for those leaving the system?
| Weekly Round-up This week our participants focused on the economy as well as young people and education. They have shared their thoughts on what they feel the government should invest in and the impact of these policies on their daily lives. Events such as the 7 party debate and tv interviews, leave participants feeling unsatisfied as they are still unsure of how any of the political parties will implement the policies in their manifesto. |
I pay all my bills but don’t have enough to have a life…not enough to for any treats…lucky that my rent hasn’t increased
– Helen, 50, Wales
| Particularly post-COVID many have seen rises in costs for essentials (food, utilities, transport, and rent/mortgages) making it a constant juggling task. Adam had to find hundreds of pounds overnight when he remortgaged and Martin often has to borrow at the end of the month to get by despite earning a good salary. While some acknowledge external events like the war in Ukraine, many look internally to the Conservative party specifically ‘mistakes’ made under Truss that they are spending more because of. |
With two kids in childcare full time it comes in at around £1600-£1700 a month which is crazy. We can’t afford bills
– Martin, 36, Northern Ireland
| The impact of the government’s priorities including where they spend money has not gone unnoticed – particularly when it comes to young people. Ciaran see the costs friends incur as a warning that he may not be able to have kids yet and for Adam to carefully consider when he and his wife can have a second child. Parents like Victoria and Callie are concerned about growing class sizes and availability of teachers, particularly as new builds go up. There also questions about whether UK salaries and taxes will be attractive to retain young people, particularly in industries where there are skills gaps or salaries are historically low. |
There are certain items we don’t get anymore, or cheaper alternatives because we need to keep money for bills. I’d hope a new government would improve things. I can’t say I have much faith or confidence
- Ciaran, 25, London
Ipsos Public Services May 2024
| Follow us next week as we delve into the NHS & social care and the environment. We will also be hearing more from those participants who are preparing to send their postal vote. |
WEEK 1 - INTRODUCING PEOPLE BEHIND THE POLLS
27 days until #GE2024
I am swaying at the moment to either side
– Callie, 50, West Midlands
- Participants expected to hear more concrete policy plans in the first debate and were disappointed with the overall discussion, Will their questions be answered by polling day?
- One key question was where any new government will find the money to fund their proposed initiatives. Can the parties show evidence that taxes won’t rise to pay for their manifestos?
- Participants expect more communications from parties to help them make their decisions in the coming weeks. What kind of media will reach our participants?
| Weekly Round-up Welcome to our first weekly round-up! This week the People Behind the Polls have been sharing their thoughts on the leaders and how they’re feeling about the parties now that the 2024 general election campaign has started. Some haven’t seen many campaign communications yet, but others are beginning to receive targeted messaging. Clips from the debate are featuring on Jayde’s socials, and Grant was alarmed to think an overdue bill was coming through his letterbox, only to realise the red shining through was communications from the Labour Party. Jonny and Peggy aren’t getting anything through their door, but are seeing more election news on the telly. |
| The debate this week between Starmer and Sunak left many feeling frustrated. Most felt they were arguing with each other rather than properly answering the public’s questions. Gabby was willing Starmer to do better by providing us with straight answers and was disappointed when Sunak seemed to answer the questions better. A hot topic was the evidence behind Sunak’s £2000 tax claim which riled Eamonn as he willed the others to look at the evidence. Many are wondering what the parties are going to do for young people, but haven’t found their answers yet from Sunak or Starmer. This particularly hit home for those who are parents in the group or work in the education system. |
| We will be focusing on some key policy areas next week and introducing some new members to our research. As we see manifestos launched, and headline policies fleshed out, will our participants feel like they have the answers they are looking for? Will they have increasing confidence with their decision for July 4th? |
Methodology
Watch Holly Day's quick explainer video to understand more about the project
The People Behind the Polls follows the journey of members of the public during the 2024 General Election period to explore what issues will influence their decision on election day.
Participants represent the diversity of the UK as they come from different regions and include individuals who are confident in their decision, undecided, and first-time voters.
Using our in-house mobile research app, participants will respond to topical issues from the campaign over a 4 week period and attend a focus group following one of the pre-election debates.
We will not provide the participants with any specific election content and most of the tasks are private, enabling them to reflect on their responses and prevent groupthink from setting in throughout June and July. These are the views of the participants and not those of Ipsos.
Each week we will produce:
- A video montage based on the theme of the week
- A written summary of the journey of the participants
The author(s)
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Michelle MackieHead of the Qualitative Research and Engagement Centre, Public Affairs
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