AP/Ipsos CASH Index (Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household)

Washington, DC -- After a sharp drop in February, the Associated Press/Ipsos-Public Affairs CASH Index surged in March (84.2, from 79.1 in February). Improved consumer confidence this month reflects Americans' more positive attitudes toward current economic conditions and continued very strong faith in job security. Yet the CASH Index remains lower than at any point in 2004 (84.8 in April 2004 was the low point last year), in part because of consumers' concern for their future economic well-being.

Consumers More Confident of Job Prospects, Current Economic Conditions The strongest increase in the CASH Index this month comes from the Jobs Index, which rose from 107.5 in February to 119.2 this month. The Jobs Index, which gauges perceptions of job security, is a critical element of consumer attitudes--historically, when people feel confident in their job security, they are more willing to spend and take risks. The surge in the Jobs Index in March follows news of strong job growth in the U.S. in February.

One element of this rise is that fewer people now than at any recent point in time report that within the past six months, they or someone they know lost their job as a result of economic conditions.

Consumers are also voicing more positive views of the current economic climate. The Current Conditions Index, which measures attitudes toward the state of the local economy as well as respondents' own financial situation, stands at 92.9, up from 82.7 in February.

At 88.5, the Investment Index, which tracks consumers' confidence in their ability to save for the future after making purchases for the home, is also higher than it was a month ago (80). One component of the Investment Index indicates that significantly fewer people now (40%) than a month ago (47%) report that they are less confident in their ability to invest in the future.

Lowered Expectations for the Future The one element of the CASH Index that is lower in March is the Expectations Index. Currently at 52.6, the Expectations Index is down six percentage points from February (58.6) and is substantially below the level seen one year ago (95.2 in March 2004). One key element of the Expectations Index is the question asking whether respondents expect the economy in their area to improve or decline in the next six months. The youngest and oldest respondents are the most optimistic. Respondents in the Northeast, as well as those in the Oil Patch and Great Lakes states show the greatest increase in pessimism (local economy will be weaker in 6 months.)

Despite the positive evaluations of current economic conditions, nearly one in five (18%) say they expect the economy in their area to be weaker six months from now, up from recent months (15% in February, 11% in January). Half (53%) expect local economic conditions to remain the same, and three in ten (29%) anticipate conditions will be stronger.

Methodology The Associated Press Poll is conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Between March 7-9, 2005, the AP-Ipsos poll interviewed a representative sample of 1,001 adults nationwide, including 842 registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 for all adults and +/- 3.4 for registered voters. Margin of error for subgroups may be higher.

The AP/Ipsos CASH Index is designed to provide a single, handy number that summarizes movement across an array of consumer attitudes, including current assessments and near-term expectations about the economy and personal finances, job security, confidence in the ability to save and invest for the future, and comfort level with making major purchases and other household purchases.

Ipsos CASH Index Surveys of consumers are conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs, the Washington, D.C.-based division of Ipsos, a leading global survey-based market research group. The Ipsos Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household (CASH) Index polls are conducted the first and third week of every month, as part of Ipsos-Public Affairs weekly omnibus polling service. The Ipsos CASH Index, started in January 2002, is a bimonthly national survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of the local economy, personal financial situation and spending, saving and confidence to invest.

For more information about the Ipsos CASH Index or to receive this report on the first and third week of every month, please e-mail [email protected], or contact Brian Scanlon at 202.463.2146.

For more information on this press release, please contact: Janice Bell Director, Ipsos Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300

About Ipsos Public Affairs Ipsos Public Affairs, headquartered in Washington D.C., is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research company made up of campaign and political polling veterans as well as seasoned research professionals. The company conducts strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research but often elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research. It has offices in New York City, Chicago, San Francisco, and Washington, with affiliates around the world. Ipsos Public Affairs conducts national and international public opinion polling on behalf of The Associated Press, the world's oldest and largest news organization, and conducts the young voters poll for Newsweek.com. Ipsos Public Affairs is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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