Biden's bad week

I thought this was supposed to be a lazy late August week.

What happened, you may ask? Well, just the collapse of the Afghan government, bomb threats in DC, and, yeah, my Cubbies are 20 games back. Indeed, more drama than expected.

Looking forward, President Biden faces significant headwinds over the next six weeks. Uncertainty created by the Delta variant and the waning efficacy of vaccinations. The growing global notion that America is retreating from its historical obligations—the Afghanistan effect. The emergence of seemingly intractable social and racial issues. Not to mention hyper-partisanship that makes any compromise impossible.

Going into 2022, this is what Biden and the Democrats face. Any chance they retain the Senate and the House? We will see.​

Please find below the most relevant polling data points of the week:

1. Approval Mess. Biden has hit choppy waters. Our polling puts him at the lowest point of his administration. Look at the data. Why? A little bit of this, a little bit of that. But mostly, COVID and Afghanistan.

    

2. History Hurts. Biden’s approval ratings find themselves below the historic average. The numbers do reflect the worst of the Afghanistan effect. Even so, Biden has been sucking wind.

    

3. Biden's folly. The president scores only lukewarm approval for his handling of Afghanistan. Of course, there is a strong partisan tilt. Democrats are more favorable; Republicans are less so. Biden has a challenge here.

    

4. American ambivalence. Yes, the sudden collapse of the Afghan government is a disaster. But what should America do? People are not sure. Stay and send more troops; also, pull out. America is all over the place: ambivalence, uncertainty, and indecision.

    

5. The COVID Swan Song. Biden won the election on COVID and had surfed that wave through the first part of this year. But he is losing steam. Looking at his numbers, Afghanistan is bad but will pass. COVID, though, is here to stay.

    

So, we are more than a year out from the midterm elections. Right now, Biden is losing momentum. Some of this is just simple political physics—approval ratings naturally decline over the course of a presidential administration.

But, COVID, partisanship, and White House missteps all are potential propellants to numeric decline as well. Whether Biden can regain his footing is an open question. Let’s wait and see.

As always, take care and be well.