Indictment watch

As July heats up, so has indictment watch and news. Federal prosecutors added charges to the classified documents case against former President Trump.

That wasn’t the only indictment news. Late this week, Trump’s team met with the special counsel’s January 6th team about a potential indictment of the former president. There has also been some movement from Fulton County, possibly indicating potential indictment-related news.

All of this is happening less than six months away from voters casting the first ballots in the primaries and one month out from the first Republican primary debate. The election is coming, and so it seems are the indictments.

Given all the news this week, we look at where Americans stand on the known and potential charges against Trump. Below are five charts documenting how Americans feel about Trump’s latest (and possible) indictments and how this could play into his aspirations for reelection. 

1. Controversial either way. Americans are divided on indicting Trump for his actions related to Jan. 6^th – though about half think he should be charged, about on par with how Americans feel about some of his other charges and potential indictments. One certainty about the indictment: many won’t be happy.
2. Two Americas. Partisanship is, unsurprisingly, an important fault line in understanding opinion around indictments. Republicans, in contrast to the rest of America, are far less likely to think Trump should be indicted around Jan 6th, while a near consensus of Democrats believe he should have. Two Americas, one red, one blue.
3. Two Standards. Most Republicans agree that Trump is not above the law. But, at the same time, most also widely believe his earlier indictments were politically motivated and that he’s being targeted by elites.
4. Sooner rather than later. Still, most want to see Trump head to trial before ballots are cast for 2024 for the sensitive documents case. Most Americans, including a plurality of Republicans, think Trump should head to trial before the Republican primaries and 2024 presidential election. How does this shake out for the other cases against the former president? We will have to see.
5. Undying support. How could Trump’s indictment affect his standing among other Republican candidates? His level of support has oscillated over the last few months, but he has maintained a strong grasp over Republicans across two indictments. Bets are that a third won’t dethrone him, either.

The indictments aren’t happening in a vacuum. The 2024 primary and general election looms large over the process, as former President Trump continues to make history with his legal troubles. We are weeks away from the first Republican debate, and now less than six months out from when voting begins for the primary. What happens next is anyone’s guess.