WASHINGTON, D.C.—A new poll for The Washington Post conducted by Ipsos, a global public opinion research firm, released today finds former Vice President Joe Biden holding a commanding lead in the race for the Democratic nomination for president. In a survey of over 1,088 non-Hispanic black adults, nearly half (48%) of respondents named Biden as their top choice. Additionally, a majority (53%) believe he has the best chance of beating President Trump.
The Washington Post story can be found here.
“It’s hardly a surprise that Vice President Biden has such a large lead,” said Clifford Young, President of Ipsos Public Affairs, US. “Our polling found that more than six in 10 African Americans believe the next president should continue to build on President Obama’s policies, and Biden’s campaign has promised to do exactly that. He has tied himself to Obama’s legacy, and it’s paying off politically.”
The rest of the Democratic field continues to lag behind Biden with the black community—ten of the party’s candidates, including Mike Bloomberg (4%), Cory Booker (4%), Andrew Yang (3%), Pete Buttigieg (2%), Tom Steyer (2%), Michael Bennet, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Amy Klobuchar, and Deval Patrick (<1%), all failed to break 5% support among respondents.
Black Americans want to see President Trump voted out of office in 2020— with 93% of African Americans preferring any of the Democratic candidates over the President. Picking a candidate who can win is their top consideration (57%), over the candidate’s personal character (9%) and how closely they align on issues (33%). They also aren’t prioritizing whether the running mate is black (72% think it is less important.
The outcome of the next presidential election matters “a great deal” or “a good amount” to the vast majority (83%) of black Americans. And they plan to do something about it—nearly 3 out of every 4 (71%) of those surveyed are absolutely certain they will vote in the 2020 general election.
The poll was a random sample of adults in the United States who identify as non-Hispanic black, including those who identify as black alone and those who identify as black and one or more other races. All interviews were conducted in English. Ipsos conducted sampling, interviewing, and tabulation for the survey using the KnowledgePanel, a representative panel of adults age 18 and over living in the United States.
This poll was jointly sponsored and funded by The Washington Post and Ipsos. The poll is a random sample of adults in the United States who identify as non-Hispanic black, including those who identify as black alone and those who identify as black and one or more other races. All interviews were conducted in English.
This questionnaire was administered with the exact questions in the exact order as they appear in this document. Demographic questions are not shown. If a question was asked of a reduced base of the sample, a parenthetical preceding the question identifies the group asked. Phrases surrounded by parentheticals within questions indicate clauses that were randomly rotated for respondents.
Ipsos conducted sampling, interviewing, and tabulation for the survey using the KnowledgePanel, a representative panel of adults age 18 and over living in the United States. KnowledgePanel members are recruited through probability sampling methods using address-based sampling. Panel members who do not have internet access are provided with a netbook and internet service.
Ipsos drew a sample of non-Hispanic black adults from the KnowledgePanel; the sample included adults who identify as both black and another race.
This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall sample was weighted to match the demographic makeup of the non-Hispanic black population by sex, region, age, education, and household income according to the Census Bureau’s 2018 American Community Survey.
The margin of sampling error including the design effect for the full sample is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. For results based on other subgroups, the margin of sampling error may be higher. Note that sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error in this or any other public opinion poll.
All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which is 1.4 for this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey’s deviation from a simple random sample and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. Surveys that do not incorporate a design effect overstate their precision.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Vice President, US
+1 202 420-2025
Media Relations, US
+1 718 755-8829
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