After Crowning Herself Queen of the Ashes, Daenerys Targaryen Leaps Forward on List of Most Likely to Die Next

Game of Thrones Predictions. Content warning: Spoilers ahead

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Vice President, US, Public Affairs
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Washington, DC, May 17, 2019 – Before the heartbreaking collapse of King’s Landing, 21% of Game of Thrones fans correctly anticipated the literal dead end for Cersei and Jaime Lannister, and 19% predicted Euron Greyjoy’s demise. However, very few Game of Thrones fans anticipated Lord Varys (5%) and Sandor “The Hound” Clegane’s (2%) very different yet fiery ends.

For the Game of Thrones series finale, fans are placing Daenerys Targaryen first on the list of those most likely to die next. After broiling King’s Landing at 2,105 degrees Fahrenheit to a crispy crust for roughly thirty minutes, Daenerys jumps by twenty-one points to 31%. Next on the list are Daenerys’ closest allies: Grey Worm (20%), Tyrion Lannister (15%), and Drogon – Daenerys’ last dragon (13%). Sansa Stark is seen to be in growing danger after her plot against Daenerys by “spilling the beans” of Jon’s true lineage to Tyrion comes to light: Sansa jumps by six points to 10%.

The number of Game of Thrones fans who believe Jon will rule over the Seven Kingdoms remains high at 38%, constant from last week (37%). However, there are those who think Sansa Stark is making a pass to take over the Iron Throne after she took a play from Lord Petyr Baelish’s book to conspire against Daenerys. Sansa, the Lady of Winterfell, is up by four points to 11% and is now seen as an equal rival to Daenerys Targaryen, the Mother of Dragons 11%, who remains constant from last week (12%). One in 10 Game of Thrones fans (11%) believe that none of the main characters will end up on the Iron Throne.

Thirty-six percent of fans continue to believe that Jon Snow should sit on the Iron Throne, a decrease of three points from last week. Daenerys remains in second place with 16%, constant from last week (15%). However, Tyrion makes a surprise jump to third place, after demonstrating that he truly cares about the people in King’s Landing. Those who believe Tyrion should rule over Westeros increased by three points to 9%. Arya and Sansa stark are tied with 6%. Few Game of Thrones fans (4%) believe that Ser. Brienne of Tarth should rule over the realm with her unwavering loyalty, sheer valor, and gentle heart.


About the Study

For the wave fielded after episode three, a sample of 1,005 adults 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English between April 29-30, 2019. The sample includes 278 adults who watch Game of Thrones.

For the wave fielded after episode two, a sample of 1,005 adults 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English. The sample includes 267 adults who watch Game of Thrones.

For the wave fielded after episode one, a sample of 1,005 adults 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English between April 15-15, 2019. The sample includes 303 adults who watch Game of Thrones.

For the pre-season wave, a sample of 1,006 adults 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English between April 4-5, 2019. The sample includes 298 adults who watch Game of Thrones.

The sample for this study was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel (see link below for more info on “Access Panels and Recruitment”), partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling (see link below for more info on the Ipsos “Ampario Overview” sample method) and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2016 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=1,005, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.0 percentage points).

The poll also has a credibility interval plus or minus 6.7 percentage points for adults who watch Game of Thrones.

For more information about conducting research intended for public release or Ipsos’ online polling methodology, please visit our Public Opinion Polling and Communication page where you can download our brochure, see our public release protocol, or contact us.


About Ipsos Public Affairs

Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.

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About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks fourth in the global research industry.

With offices in 89 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media; customer loyalty; marketing; public affairs research; and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,749.5 million in 2018.

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Vice President, US, Public Affairs

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