After Volunteering for the Night's Watch, Samwell Tarly Leaps Forward on List of Most Likely To Die Next

Game of Thrones Predictions. Content warning: Spoilers ahead

After Volunteering for the Night's Watch, Samwell Tarly Leaps Forward on List of Most Likely To Die Next

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Vice President, US, Public Affairs
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Washington, DC, April 18, 2019 – Samwell Tarly may have been safe after killing a White Walker and stealing books from the Citadel, but volunteering for the Night’s Watch during the upcoming Battle of Winterfell may be the nail in the coffin for this beloved character. Last week, Samwell Tarly was last in our list of mostly likely to die next, with only 3% of Game of Thrones fans thinking he is likely to die next. This week, one in ten Game of Thrones fans (10%) thinks he is likely to be killed, a seven-point increase since last episode. While Daenerys Targaryen is relatively safe this week (6%), one or both of her dragons are believed to be in danger. Sixteen percent of Game of Thrones fans think her dragons will become extinct, a 6-point increase since last episode (10%). Jaime Lannister (17%), Theon Greyjoy (15%), Jorah Mormont (14%) and The Hound (14%) continue to top the list of mostly likely to die next.

The number of Game of Thrones fans who think Jaime Lannister is going to become a White Walker has doubled since the beginning of the season. During the pre-season poll, 8% of Game of Thrones fans believed that Jaimie Lannister was going to become a White Walker next. After the second episode, 16% of fans predict that The Kingslayer is going to join the army of the undead. Theon Greyjoy (19%) and The Hound (17%) both went up four-point since last week and continue to be at the top of the list of who is most likely going to become a White Walker.

Despite Game of Thrones fans losing confidence in her last week, Daenerys Targaryen jumps up seven points to 20%, ranking second on the list of who is most likely to sit on the Iron Throne. Regardless of her gains, Daenerys Targaryen continues to fall behind Jon Snow. A third (33%) of Game of Thrones fans think Jon Snow mostly likely will end up on the Iron Throne, ruling over Westeros. Game of Thrones fans also continue to think Jon Snow should be the ruler of the Seven Kingdoms (41%). Sixteen percent of fans think Daenerys Targaryen should be the one to rule on the Iron Thrones.

One thing is clear: The Night King and his army of White Walkers have arrived in Winterfell. Who will die? Who will become undead? Tune in this Sunday to find out.  

About the Study

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted between April 22-23, 2019. For the survey, a sample of 1,005 adults 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English. The sample includes 267 adults who watch Game of Thrones.

For the wave fielded after episode one, a sample of 1,005 adults 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English between April 15-15, 2019. The sample includes 303 adults who watch Game of Thrones.

For the pre-season wave, a sample of 1,006 adults 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English between April 4-5, 2019. The sample includes 298 adults who watch Game of Thrones.

The sample for this study was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel (see link below for more info on “Access Panels and Recruitment”), partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling (see link below for more info on the Ipsos “Ampario Overview” sample method) and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2016 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=1,005, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.0 percentage points).

The poll also has a credibility interval plus or minus 6.8 percentage points for adults who watch Game of Thrones.

For more information about conducting research intended for public release or Ipsos’ online polling methodology, please visit our Public Opinion Polling and Communication page where you can  download our brochure, see our public release protocol, or contact us.

 

About Ipsos Public Affairs

Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.

Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. Through our media partnerships, Ipsos Public Affairs is a leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals in the U.S., Canada, the UK, and internationally. Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research

 

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks fourth in the global research industry.

With offices in 89 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media; customer loyalty; marketing; public affairs research; and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,749.5 million in 2018.

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Vice President, US, Public Affairs

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