Chicago, IL — Ipsos’ latest survey of all Americans finds the (relevant) public almost equally divided in their support for Jon Snow (26%) and Daenerys Targaryen (24%). The two favored candidates are trailed by Tyrion “The Imp” Lannister at 14%, Sansa Stark at 8%, and Jaime “The Kingslayer” Lannister at 6%. Trailing even further behind her brother (with benefits!) is incumbent Cersei Lannister who ascended the throne amidst some controversy following the unexpected deaths of most of King’s Landing.
C. Lannister is tied in the poll with Peter “Littlefinger” Baelish who has to date not formally confirmed his candidacy. Trailing the list is little-known Euron Greyjoy (1%), who may fare better in future polls as his public awareness ratings improve.
Looking at the crossbreaks, we find differential support by gender between Snow and Targaryen. Experts hypothesize that Daenerys’ recent retort to an episode of extreme “mansplaining” at the Temple of the Dosh Khaleen (resulting in Targaryen’s ascendency to the Dothraki leadership) may explain her higher support among women (28% of women prefer Targaryen vs. 21% of men). Snow is garnering more support from men, with 29% of men vs. 23% of women indicating a preference for seeing Snow on the throne.
For more analysis on this data, visit GenPop.
About the Study
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted June 29-July 5, 2017. For the survey, a sample of roughly 2,011 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample includes 613 adults who watch Game of Thrones.
The sample for this study was randomly drawn from Ipsos’s online panel (see link below for more info on “Access Panels and Recruitment”), partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling (see link below for more info on the Ipsos “Ampario Overview” sample method) and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2013 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=2,011, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=4). The poll also has a credibility interval plus or minus 4.5 percentage points for those who watch Game of Thrones.
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Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
Ipsos Public Affairs
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