In Race for Iron Throne, Americans Choose Snow over Targaryen by Narrow Margin

Unlikely – and formerly deceased – underdog candidate Jon “The B*stard” Snow leads Daenerys “Mother of Dragons” Targaryen by two points among those who understand what this question is even about

The author(s)

  • Julia Clark Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Chris Jackson Vice President, US, Public Affairs
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Chicago, IL —  Ipsos’ latest survey of all Americans finds the (relevant) public almost equally divided in their support for Jon Snow (26%) and Daenerys Targaryen (24%). The two favored candidates are trailed by Tyrion “The Imp” Lannister at 14%, Sansa Stark at 8%, and Jaime “The Kingslayer” Lannister at 6%. Trailing even further behind her brother (with benefits!) is incumbent Cersei Lannister who ascended the throne amidst some controversy following the unexpected deaths of most of King’s Landing.

C. Lannister is tied in the poll with Peter “Littlefinger” Baelish who has to date not formally confirmed his candidacy. Trailing the list is little-known Euron Greyjoy (1%), who may fare better in future polls as his public awareness ratings improve.

Looking at the crossbreaks, we find differential support by gender between Snow and Targaryen. Experts hypothesize that Daenerys’ recent retort to an episode of extreme “mansplaining” at the Temple of the Dosh Khaleen (resulting in Targaryen’s ascendency to the Dothraki leadership) may explain her higher support among women (28% of women prefer Targaryen vs. 21% of men). Snow is garnering more support from men, with 29% of men vs. 23% of women indicating a preference for seeing Snow on the throne. 

For more analysis on this data, visit GenPop

About the Study

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted June 29-July 5, 2017. For the survey, a sample of roughly 2,011 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample includes 613 adults who watch Game of Thrones.

The sample for this study was randomly drawn from Ipsos’s online panel (see link below for more info on “Access Panels and Recruitment”), partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling (see link below for more info on the Ipsos “Ampario Overview” sample method) and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2013 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=2,011, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=4). The poll also has a credibility interval plus or minus 4.5 percentage points for those who watch Game of Thrones.
For more information about conducting research intended for public release or Ipsos’ online polling methodology, please visit our Public Opinion Polling and Communication page where you can  download our brochure, see our public release protocol, or contact us.

For more information on this news release please contact:

Julia Clark
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs

Chris Jackson
Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs

About Ipsos Public Affairs

Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.

Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In Canada, the U.S., UK, and internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry.

With offices in 88 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media, customer loyalty, marketing, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,785.3 million ($1,981 million) in 2015.


The author(s)

  • Julia Clark Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Chris Jackson Vice President, US, Public Affairs

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