Washington, DC, June 17, 2019 – Heading into election season, Ipsos, on behalf of Daily Beast, seeks to understand voter inclinations and gender biases that may impact the 2020 races. In a series of matchup scenarios for the presidential race, the poll finds that the leading male Democratic candidates (Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders) have an approximately five percentage point larger lead in a hypothetical matchup with Donald Trump than do the two leading female contenders (Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris).
Among Democrats and Independents, the top priority by far when choosing which candidate to support for the 2020 Democratic primaries is nominating someone who can beat Trump (82%). Democrats and Independents do not believe that nominating a woman (40%), nominating a minority (38%), and nominating a white man (20%) are priorities for the Democratic party in 2020.
When asked about having a female president, Democrats and Independents are themselves comfortable with a female president (74%), but believe their neighbors are less accepting (33%). However, Democrats and Independents are split in their opinion on whether a woman would have a harder time than a man running against Donald Trump in 2020, with only slightly more of those who say they agree (39%) over disagree (26%) or neither agree nor disagree (28%) with the statement. Americans are also split on whether or not gender and sexism played a role in Hillary Clinton’s loss to Donald Trump in 2016, with about half saying it did play a role (49%) and half saying it did not (52%). Sentiments that gender biases did play a role are largely driven by Democrats (76%) and female respondents (54%).
About the Study
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted June 10-June 11, 2019. For the survey, a sample of 1,005 adults 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English. The sample includes 344 Democrats, 340 Republicans, and 223 Independents.
The sample for this study was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel (see link below for more info on “Access Panels and Recruitment”), partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling (see link below for more info on the Ipsos “Ampario Overview” sample method) and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2016 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=2,021, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.0 percentage points).
The poll also has a credibility interval plus or minus 4.3 percentage points for Democrats, 4.1 percentage points for Republicans, and 5.5 percentage points for Independents.
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Vice President, U.S.
Ipsos Public Affairs
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