Washington, DC, September 11, 2019 — The latest Ipsos poll, conducted on behalf of USA Today, finds that among potential Democratic primary voters, Biden and Sanders are seen as equally able to stand up to Trump (74% and 77% top 3 box), followed closely by Warren (70%).
- Sanders (76%), Biden (71%), and Warren (68%) are also 1-2-3 on able to make hard decisions.
- The margin between the two leading men and Warren is larger on “approachable” with Sanders (75%) and Biden (71%) 10 points ahead of Warren (62%). Sanders (61%) and Warren (60%) are comparable on “intellectual and methodical” followed by Biden (52%).
- More potential Democratic primary voters say Biden (37%) can beat Trump than Sanders (20%) or Warren (16%).
It also shows that:
- Eight in 10 (83%) of Democrats and Independents say they are comfortable with a female president but only 39% agree that their neighbors are comfortable with a female president.
- Both of these numbers have climbed since earlier this summer when 74% of Democrats and Independents were comfortable with a female president and 33% thought their neighbors would be.
- Six in 10 (63%) of Americans think the country is ready to elect a woman president including 52% of Republicans, 75% of Democrats, and 66% of Independents.
About the Study
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between August 28-30 on behalf of USA Today. For this survey, a sample of roughly 2,012 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S. Alaska and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample includes 923 Democrats and Independents who say they are probably or certainly going to take part in the 2020 Democratic primaries.
The sample for this study was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel (see link below for more info on “Access Panels and Recruitment”), partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling (see link below for more info on the Ipsos “Ampario Overview” sample method) and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2016 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for all respondents, and. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=2,012 DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-4.0 percentage points).
The poll also has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points for likely Democratic primary voters.
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