Majority of Americans Don’t Understand the Presidential Procedure for a Nuclear Strike
Washington, DC — The latest Ipsos/NPR poll explored American attitudes towards North Korea, focusing on how much Americans actually know about North Korea and the extent to which they care about a potential nuclear conflict.
To better gauge American understanding of North Korea and their nuclear capabilities, we explored American’s knowledge through fact based questions. Overall, only 18% were able to get an ‘A’ with nine or more correct, while a plurality (37%) got five or less correct, earning them an ‘F.’ Democrats struggled the most, with nearly two in five (41%) getting an ‘F.’ Republicans proved to be most knowledgeable, with 74% receiving a ‘C’ or higher. Notably, a majority of Americans (57%) were able to identify North Korea on a map of Asia. Outside of geography, Americans generally struggled on questions about North Korea’s nuclear capabilities. Many were divided on the distance North Korean ballistic missiles can travel, with only 41% correctly guessing they could hit the continental US. Similarly, only 26% knew North Korea is capable of killing roughly 300,000 in South Korea in the first 48 hours of a war using only conventional weapons. In addition to little understanding about North Korea, many Americans incorrectly guessed the presidential procedure for initiating a nuclear strike. Only a quarter of Americans (24%) understand the lack of checks and balances, allowing the president to order a nuclear strike without any coordination with the Secretary of Defense, confirmation with the Joint Chiefs of Staff or approval from Congress.
Beyond the knowledge questions, Americans are more divided on their feelings about a potential North Korean conflict and nuclear strike. A majority of Americans (51%) do not trust President Trump to handle the conflict with North Korea, though this division falls along party lines. While a majority (54%) believe the US should never use nuclear weapons, over a third of Americans (37%) disagree. Americans were also divided when asked about their level of agreement with actions against North Korea that would have impacts on the US. Only 51% support sabotaging North Korea’s nuclear program through cyber-espionage, even if it opens the US to be attacked by the same. Even fewer (41%) support using targeted first strikes to destroy North Korea’s nuclear program, even if it potentially results in thousands of deaths. Despite a lack of consensus on next steps, Americans overwhelmingly agree that Kim Jong Un, the Supreme Leader of North Korea, is far more likely to start an armed conflict than Donald Trump (50%).
About the Study
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted September 11-12, 2017 on behalf of National Public Radio. For the survey, a sample of roughly 1,005 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample includes 322 Democrats, 357 Republicans, and 219 Independents.
The sample for this study was randomly drawn from Ipsos’s online panel (see link below for more info on “Access Panels and Recruitment”), partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling (see link below for more info on the Ipsos “Ampario Overview” sample method) and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2013 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=1,005, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=5).
The poll also has a credibility interval plus or minus 6.2 percentage points for Democrats, plus or minus 5.9 percentage points for Republicans, and plus or minus 7.6 percentage points for Independents.
For more information about conducting research intended for public release or Ipsos’ online polling methodology, please visit our Public Opinion Polling and Communication page where you can download our brochure, see our public release protocol, or contact us.
For more information on this news release please contact:
Chris Jackson
Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
202.420.2011
[email protected]
About Ipsos Public Affairs
Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.
Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In Canada, the U.S., UK, and internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.
About Ipsos
Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks fourth in the global research industry.
With offices in 89 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media; customer loyalty; marketing; public affairs research; and survey management.
Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.
Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,782.7 million in 2016.
