Reuters/Ipsos Core Political Survey: 2020 Democratic Primary (07/03/2019)

Washington, D.C. - Following the Democratic Primary Debates last week, former Vice President Joe Biden remains in the lead for the Democratic nomination among Democratic registered voters (28%), but his support has dropped by 8 points among Democratic registered voters since last month (36%). Senator Bernie Sanders remains in second place (18%), and has had very little movement since last month (16%). Senators Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren are currently tied for third for the nomination (13% each). Harris’ support has risen 5 points since last month (8%) and Warren’s support has increased by 2 points (11%). Former Congressman Beto O’Rourke and Mayor Pete Buttigieg each receive 4 percent of the vote share – relatively unchanged for both men following the debate. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang (3%) and former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro (2%) round out the top 8 candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination. Other candidates received 1 percent or less of support in our poll.  

Americans are most familiar with the front runners of the campaign: Joe Biden (80%), Bernie Sanders (78%), Elizabeth Warren (59%), Kamala Harris (48%), and Beto O’Rourke (40%). Overall, Americans are less familiar with Pete Buttigieg (32%), Julian Castro (29%) and Andrew Yang (19%). Democratic registered voters are more familiar with the candidates, but the trends are the similar –Sanders (89%) and Biden (88%) are the most well known of the candidates, followed by Warren (70%), Harris (63%), and O’Rourke (51%). Buttigieg (44%) and Castro (41%)  are slightly less well-known in Democratic circles and Yang is the least familiar of the top 8 candidates (25%).

Among Democratic registered voters, Harris (83%), Biden (82%), Warren (82%), and Sanders (79%) enjoy the highest favorability ratings among their Democratic base. O’Rourke (72%), Buttigieg (70%), and Yang (63%) are also perceived favorably by large numbers of Democratic registered voters. Among all Americans, Biden (55%), Sanders (52%), and Harris (51%) are viewed the most favorably. Warren (49%), Buttigieg (47%), Castro (46%), Yang (46%), and O’Rourke (46%) are also viewed favorably by just about half of Americans.

When asked about perceptions of the direction of the country, 3 in 10 Americans (31%) believe the country is headed in the right direction, and a similar number of registered voters feel the same way (33%). Republican registered voters are the most optimistic (62%), while Independent registered voters (17%) and Democratic registered voters (13%) are much less likely to say the country is headed in the right direction.

President Donald Trump’s approval ratings remain stable – 41 percent of Americans and 43 percent of registered voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president. Democratic registered voters are the least likely to approve – just 1 in 10 say they approve of him (10%). Republican registered voters continue to overwhelmingly approve of Trump (85%). While about one-third of Independents approve (34%). Perceptions of Trump’s job performance have remained steady for several months.

Immigration (23%), healthcare (20%) and the economy (11%) are the most important issues facing the nation according to all Americans. Registered voters have similar perceptions. Democratic registered voters and Independent registered voters view healthcare (28% and 24% respectively) as the top issues, followed by immigration (13% and 15% respectively). Democratic registered voters view the environment (12%) and the economy (12%) as equally pressing issues. Independent registered voters see the economy (13%) as the next most important problem, while the environment is not a top issue for most Independent registered voters (5%). Republican registered voters perceive immigration (39%) as the top problem facing the nation, with the economy (12%) and healthcare (11%) as distant second and third priorities. Just 2 percent of Republican registered voters view the environment as a pressing concern.

About this Study

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters between June 28-July 2, 2019. For the survey, a sample of 2,221 Americans, including 1,973 registered voters, 909 Democrat registered voters, 800 Republican registered voters, and 189 Independent registered voters ages 18+ were interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points for all adults, 2.5 percentage points for registered voters, 3.7 percentage points for Democratic registered voters, 4.0 percentage points for Republican registered voters, and 8.1 percentage points for Independent registered voters. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit http://polling.reuters.com/.

For more information on this news release please contact:

Clifford Young
President, U.S.
Ipsos Public Affairs
202.420.2016
[email protected]

Chris Jackson
Vice President, U.S.
Ipsos Public Affairs
202.420.2011
[email protected]

About Ipsos

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