Cliff’s Take: COVID takes a bite out of Biden’s approval ratings
It is hard to believe fall is almost here and that we are still grappling with COVID. Though cases are surging and ICU beds are reaching capacity, the talk is still less about social distancing and lockdowns, and more about booster shots and mandates.
We have a solution to the pandemic – vaccines. It’s just that our solution is still seen as a non-starter by too many. I am afraid that this will be our reality into the future: uncertainty and caution.
Meanwhile, I’m keeping an eye on Biden’s approval ratings. Has his window already closed? It’s unclear. But his numbers are seriously sagging. And this is all due to COVID.
What do they say? Live by the sword; die by the sword. Biden won on COVID and pushed his agenda on it. But now he slams up against it.
Below I detail the data highlights of the week.
- Mortal decline? The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan was a gut punch. But the truth is, Biden's approval rating was on a slow and steady decline before that. All presidential honeymoons must eventually come to an end. His honeymoon lasted around six months, about average.
- Long haul COVID. COVID management was Biden’s key pillar – America gave him great marks on this leading up to this summer. But frustration has mounted as COVID cases have risen. The writing is on the wall. The Biden administration must act now before its political equity expires.
- Don’t mandate on me. So, what was that about decisive action? Enter Biden’s new ruling that businesses with 100 or more employees require those employees to get vaccinated or tested. Look at the data! Strong majorities support such actions. Blue Americans much more; red ones less so. Will this staunch Biden's bleeding? Maybe too little, too late.
- Evasive tactics. Employers are in a difficult place when it comes to "back to the office." Why? The unvaccinated aren’t persuaded by vaccine mandates. Instead, sneaking around the mandate is their first order of business; testing is second. That seems about right in a world defined by COVID rules.
- Magical thinking? As a group, the unvaccinated are more likely to say they think they’ve had COVID at some point. Why don’t they get vaccinated? We can’t say for sure. But this does suggest that for some, even a direct brush with the virus itself isn’t persuasive enough of a messenger. This is our COVID world. Uncertain, but with stubborn determination.
So once again, we circle back to the theme of two Americas – one in which vaccines are the path forward, the other in which they’re menacing at worst or pointless at best. It’s Biden’s task to thread his way through this maze of competing beliefs and perceptions.
Is time running out for the Biden administration at this point? COVID is weakening him. And the 2022 election cycle will soon be upon us. Let's see how this plays out.
As always, take care, and be well.
