U.S. consumer sentiment remains unchanged
Washington, DC, October 6, 2022 – Americans’ economic sentiment remains unchanged, as the Ipsos-Forbes Advisor U.S. Consumer Confidence Tracker shows its main index at 50 for the second consecutive two-week period. The index continues to sit at levels seen for much of the summer and remains significantly lower than it did to start the year, as it is currently around seven points lower than its reading in early January.
The Current and Investment sub-indices both gained at least one point this reading. On the other hand, the Expectations index declined by nearly two points and continues to sit at levels well below its historical and pandemic averages.
The Jobs sub-index declined by more than two points and now sits at its lowest point since early August 2021. While Americans’ purchasing confidence slightly increased, more than three in five continue to report being less comfortable making both major and other household purchases than they were six months ago.
This reading highlights contrasting shifts in Americans’ perceptions about inflation and their job security. Less than three in five expect inflation to continue to go up in the next six months, the lowest mark for this measure since tracking started in December 2021. Despite these decreasing concerns about inflation, however, more than two in five now believe that they or someone close to them will lose their job in the next six months. A similar percentage believe that the number of unemployed people in the country will continue to increase; this measure is at its highest point since tracking started in December 2021.
Lastly, sentiment continues to differ widely among demographic groups. Democrats, those earning $100K+, and those living in urban areas show scores significantly higher than the total population. In contrast, Republicans, the unemployed, those earning less than $50K, and rural Americans continue to have significantly lower index scores.
Read the full story from Forbes Advisor here.
Learn more about the Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index and sub-indices via the interactive portal, Ipsos Consolidated Economic Indicators (IpsosGlobalIndicators.com) including graphic comparisons, trended data and all the questions on which they are based.
Detailed Findings
1. Reading at 50.0, the latest Overall Consumer Confidence index is unchanged from two weeks ago.
- The Overall Confidence Index is currently 3.4 points below the pandemic average and 10.1 points below where it stood in early March 2020, prior to the first lockdowns (60.1). The index now sits 2.9 points lower than its 20-year historical average.
2. The Expectations sub-index, down 1.9 points from two weeks ago, has returned to levels seen for much of the summer. The index continues to sit below its pandemic and historical averages, as well as its pre-pandemic reading. Lastly, the Expectations index sits below the 60-point mark for the twelfth consecutive two-week period, a threshold it never crossed in 2021.
3. For the second consecutive two-week period, the Current and Investment sub-indices both gained at least one point.
- The Current Index and Investment Index continue to remain significantly lower than they were pre-pandemic, now by 13.6 points and 13 points, respectively. The Current Index now sits around five points lower than both its pandemic and 20-year historical averages, while the Investment Index is around six points lower than these respective averages.
4. The Jobs sub-index fell to its lowest point of 2022 this reading, declining by 2.4 points. While it continues to exceed both its pandemic and historical averages (by 2.6 and 3.4 points, respectively), the index now sits nearly seven points below its pre-pandemic reading.
- The proportion of Americans who say they are more confident in their job security now compared to six months ago is at 46%, down 3 points and reversing gains made two weeks ago.
- The proportion of Americans reporting they, a family member, or a personal acquaintance lost their job in the past six months due to economic conditions is at 26%, unchanged from two weeks ago.
- In addition, 44% say it’s at least somewhat likely that they, a family member, or a personal acquaintance will lose their job in the next six months due to economic conditions, up 5 points from two weeks ago.
5. For the first time since tracking started in December 2021, less than three in five (55%) Americans surveyed believe inflation will go up (down 6 points from four weeks ago when last measured).
A majority continue to expect mortgage interest rates and the amount they pay on monthly bills to go up, and half of Americans expect the same of taxes (51%, down 5 points).
Lastly, 43% of Americans expect the number of unemployed people in the country to increase (up 5 points from four weeks ago). This is the highest point for this measure since tracking first started in December 2021.
- The most significant change this week was among the percentage of Americans who believe their monthly bills will go up (55%, down 8 points from early September).
6. Purchasing confidence sees a slight uptick this week. However, less than two in five are more comfortable making both major and other household purchases than they were six months ago.
- 38% say they are more comfortable making major household purchases compared to six months ago, up 5 points from the previous reading.
- 36% say they are more comfortable making other household purchases compared to six months ago, up 1 point from the previous reading.
Questions
The data used for the Consumer Confidence index and sub-indices is based on the following questions:
1. Now, thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in the US? Is it… very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
2. Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.
3. Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
4. Rate your current financial situation, using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means your personal financial situation is very strong today and 1 means it is very weak
5. Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect your personal financial situation to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
6. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making a major purchase, like a home or car?
7. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making other household purchases?
8. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident about job security for yourself, your family and other people you know personally?
9. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident of your ability to invest in the future, including your ability to save money for your retirement or your children’s education?
10. Thinking of the last 6 months, have you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally lost their job as a result of economic conditions?
11. Now look ahead at the next six months. How likely is it that you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally will lose their job in the next six months as a result of economic conditions?
Additional question:
1. Over the next year, do you think each of the following will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
- The rate of inflation
- Mortgage interest rates
- The amount you pay on monthly bills and other regular expenses
- The taxes you pay
- The number of unemployed people in this country
- Your household income (e.g. wages, pensions, benefits, investment, etc.)
- The total amount of your debt (e.g., mortgage, home equity/ auto/ student/ pers. loans, credit card debt, etc.)
- Your own standard of living
About the Study
These findings are based on data from an Ipsos survey conducted October 3 – 4, 2022 with a sample of 928 adults aged 18-74 from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii who were interviewed online in English.
The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel, partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2019 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, education, and party identification. Party ID benchmarks are from recent ABC News/Washington Post telephone polls.
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect. For n=928, DEFF=1.5 and adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.4 percentage points.
Findings from March 2010 to early March 2020 are based on data from Refinitiv /Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform with the same questions. For the PCSI survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 1,000+ U.S. adults aged 18-74. The Refinitiv/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings, and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month consist of a “Primary Index” based on 10 questions available upon request and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 10 questions. Those sub-indices include a Current Index, an Expectations Index, an Investment Index, and a Jobs Index.
Findings for January 2002- February 2011 are based on data from the RBC CASH Index, a monthly telephone survey of 1,000 U.S. adults aged 18 and older conducted by Ipsos with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420 2025
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