For Trump’s indictment, don’t expect much movement from the public

Late yesterday, news broke that New York prosecutors are indicting former President Donald Trump on criminal charges, another historic and unprecedented notch in the story of Donald Trump in politics. He is the first president—former or sitting—to be brought up on criminal charges before a court of law. Not to mention, on top of all that, he is running for president in 2024.

The exact charges are still under seal by the grand jury, but they seem to hinge on money Trump allegedly paid Stormy Daniels to prevent her from sharing the story of their relationship during the 2016 election.

As salacious and historic as the saga is, how is Trump faring in the court of public opinion? How will Trump's base react to this? Will they stay by his side? Looking at Reuters/Ipsos data from earlier this month and Trump’s first impeachment, it seems like, as of now, they will. 

In five charts is the entrenched and partisan state of play surrounding Trump’s indictment.

1. Hush money. Most Americans feel it is believable that Donald Trump paid Stormy Daniels hush money during the 2016 presidential election. There are clear partisan differences here, even as half of Republicans believe it is credible; whether people feel that it is a crime worthy of indictment is quite another matter entirely.
2. Politically motivated. Most Republicans view the indictment as a politically motivated attack against Trump orchestrated by an elite class to prevent him from winning the 2024 presidential election. Democrats don’t buy it, but independents are split. Two Americas; two realities.
3. Cueing from elites. How people interpret the facts of the case is driven by the media bubbles people live in. Republicans are more likely to feel Trump and conservative media acted responsibly when news broke a few weeks ago of a possible indictment, while Democrats feel their side played fair. Both sides think the other team is being unfair, though. This is how we get two Americas: one red, the other blue. 
4. Impeachment as a teaching moment. This isn’t the first time the former president has come under scrutiny; Trump’s impeachment proceedings and the public’s response to that offer clues of what may lie ahead in this case. The public’s reaction to Trump’s impeachment was unique in that public opinion did not move. What can we expect from this case? More partisan entrenchment and loyalty. Everything changes but nothing changes.
5. Lawless? Despite the unwavering political support from Trump’s base, few say they would join protests or take up arms if Trump is arrested. Most, regardless of party, wouldn’t do anything if Trump is arrested. Likewise, decisive majorities agree that Donald Trump is not above the law. Whether or not they feel that any case against him is politically motivated is an open question. But ultimately the proof will be in the pudding. Let’s wait and see.

The indictment of a former president and 2024 hopeful is unique in our Republic’s history. What does it portend? At best, political theater and at worst systemic disruption. Remember Republicans didn’t leave Trump’s side during both impeachment proceedings. How political elites and the news media cover this monumental moment will, in part, determine whether that’s true this time around too.

Only time will tell how this will all unfold. But right now, our prediction is more of the same—rancorous polarization.