The Economic Pulse of the World - October 2015

Cautious optimism for the future. After a dismal showing for all index assessment categories last month, things are looking better this time around, with two out of three assessments improving compared to last wave.

After a dismal showing for all index assessment categories last month, things are looking better this time around, with two out of three assessments improving compared to last wave.

The national economic assessment index remains unchanged, with four in 10 (39%) respondents rating the state of their national economy as “good”. Despite no movement for the overall score, some of the major players have experienced improvement in this category: Saudi Arabia (90%, +3 pts.), India (82%, +3 pts.) and China (69%, +1 pts.).

After last month's two-point decline, the local economic assessment is up one point, as three in 10 (30%) global citizens rate the economy in their local area as “strong”. Gains in this assessment category are primarily driven by member countries of BRIC (37%, +2 pts), Middle East/Africa (40%, +2 pts.) and LATAM (18%, +4 pts.). In particular, the gains are experienced by: Mexico (19%, + 9pts.), Saudi Arabia (65%, +5 pts.), China (54%, +5 pts.), Argentina (22%, +2 pts.) and Brazil (14%, +2 pts.).

Breaking out of a three-month long downward trend, the future local economic assessment is up two points since last sounding, with one quarter (24%) of respondents expecting the economy in their local area to become stronger in the next six months. Latin American countries, in particular Mexico (41%, +19 pts.) and Argentina (42%, +7 pts.), show the greatest improvement in this category.

Global Average of National Economic Assessment Unchanged: 39%

After declining for two consecutive waves, the average global economic assessment of national economies surveyed in 24 countries holds steady as 39% of global citizens rating their national economies ‘good’.

Saudi Arabia (90%) retains the top spot in the national economic assessment category, followed by India (82%), Germany (73%), Sweden (72%), China (69%) and Australia (53%). For a third month in a row, Brazil (8%) has the lowest assessment score, followed by Italy (13%), France (14%), Spain (17%), South Korea (18%), South Africa (19%), Hungary (120%) and Mexico (23%).

Countries with the greatest improvements in this wave: Sweden (72%, +7 pts.), Canada (51%, +6 pts.), Hungary (20%, +4 pts.) South Korea (18%, +4 pts.), France (14%, +4 pts.), Saudi Arabia (90%, +3 pts.), India (82%, +3 pts.) and South Africa (19%, +3 pts.).

Countries with the greatest declines: Israel (44%, -8 pts.), Belgium (35%, -7 pts.), Great Britain (48%, -5 pts.), Germany (73%, -4 pts.), Russia (30%, -4 pts.), Spain (17%, -2 pts.), Australia (53%, -1 pts.) and Italy (13%, -1 pts.).

National Economic Assessments - October 2015

Global Average of Local Economic Assessment (30%) Up One Point

When asked to assess their local economy, 30% agree the state of the current economy in their local area is ‘good,’ on the global aggregate level. The local economic assessment is up one point since last sounding.

Rebounding from last month’s points loss, Saudi Arabia (65%) leads this assessment category once again, followed by Sweden (60%), Israel (56%), China (54%), India (53%), Germany (52%) and the United States (37%). Three countries are tied for the lowest spot in this assessment – Italy, South Korea, Spain (all - 13%), followed by Brazil (14%), Hungary (14%), France (15%), Japan (16%) and South Africa (11%).

Countries with the greatest improvements in this wave: Mexico (19%, +9 pts.), Poland (29%, +8 pts.), Saudi Arabia (65%, +5 pts.), China (54%, +5 pts.), South Africa (16%, +5 pts.), France (15%, +3 pts.), Sweden (60%, +2 pts.), the United States (37%, +2 pts.), Argentina (22%, +2 pts.) and Brazil (14%, +2 pts.).

Countries with the greatest declines: Germany (52%, -4 pts.), Canada (31%, -4 pts.), Israel (56%, -3 pts.), India (53%, -3 pts.), Great Britain (33%, -3 pts.), Australia (33%, -2 pts.), Belgium (22%, -2 pts.), Spain (13%, -2 pts.) and South Korea (13%, -1 pts.).

Global Average of Future Outlook for Local Economy (24%) Up  Two Points

The future outlook is up two points, as one quarter (24%) of global citizens expect their local economy will be stronger six months from now.

India (62%) remains the leader in this assessment category, followed by Saudi Arabia (55%), Brazil (52%), China (44%), Argentina (42%), Mexico (41%), the United States (24%) and Spain (21%). Remaining the lowest in this assessment again, a small minority in France (%) expect their local economy to be strong six months from now, followed by Belgium (9%), Hungary (9%), Israel (10%) and South Korea (11%).

Countries with the greatest improvements in this wave: Mexico (41%, +19 pts.), Saudi Arabia (55%, +7 pts.), Argentina (42%, +7 pts.), Australia (20%, +4 pts.), Italy (14%, +3 pts.), Canada (18%, +2 pts.) and France (6%, +2 pts.).

Countries with the greatest declines: Israel (10%, -4 pts.), China (44%, -3 pts.), Turkey (20%, -3 pts.), South Korea (11%, -3 pts.), Great Britain (17%, -2 pts.), Belgium (9%, -2 pts.), Spain (21%, -1 pts.), Russia (20%, -1 pts.), and Poland (15%, -1 pts.).

Citizens in 24 countries assess the current state of their country’s economy for a total global perspective.

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