Global Attitudes to the Ukraine War

Key findings

• Muted optimism on the end of the war. However, many Europe remain pessimistic.
• People believe a lack of action in Ukraine would encourage Russia to go further.
• Two-thirds think support is needed for countries when they are attacked.
• However, in 27 of 29 countries surveyed don’t want to be militarily involved in Ukraine.
• Expectation that military action in Ukraine will encourage to further attacks in other countries.

Belief that the war in the Ukraine is coming to an end is rising. In 27 of the 29 countries surveyed more think the conflict in Ukraine will end in 2025 than did six months ago. Italy and Singapore have seen the biggest increase since November 2024 in feeling that the war will end this year (up 22 percentage points (pp) and 19pp respectively). 

However, the overall picture is still gloomy. On average across 29 countries 36% think it is likely the war will end this year, while 50% think it is unlikely. Majorities in many European countries think it is unlikely the war will end by next January. More than two-thirds in Germany (71%), the Netherlands (68%) and Sweden (67%) believe this to be the case.  

People more likely to think the Ukraine war will end this year than six months ago

Two-thirds (63%) across 29 countries feel doing nothing in Ukraine will encourage Russia to take further military action elsewhere in Europe and Asia. In all but one country (Hungary) are people more likely to think doing nothing will embolden Russia. Poland, Thailand, Peru and the Netherlands have seen the biggest increases since 2023 in feeling that doing nothing will bring further military action (up 16pp, 10pp, 10pp and 9pp respectively). 

Two-thirds (65%) across 29 countries say my country must support sovereign nations when they are attacked by other countries. A majority in all but three countries surveyed feel this way. While there is support for defending sovereign nations among the 13 NATO countries covered in this survey, 11 of them have seen support fall compared to 2023 and all 13 NATO countries have seen support for defending others fall since 2022.   

Support for helping other countries under attack falls since 2022 in NATO countries

In 27 of the 29 countries surveyed, a majority say their country should not get involved militarily in Ukraine. Support for not getting involved militarily is highest in Hungary (87%), while, on the opposite side, a majority in Sweden (56%) disagree with this statement.  

On average across 29 countries, 61% believe taking military action in Ukraine will encourage attacks against other countries. Belief is highest in Latin America and Asia. However, in many European and English-speaking countries belief that taking military action will bring further attacks has fallen since 2022. Canada, Great Britain, the US, the Netherlands, Australia, France and Poland have seen double digit declines compared to three years ago.