Global consumer confidence remains on a downward path

Ipsos’ Global Consumer Confidence Index this month reads at 47.6, down three-tenths of a point since April. It is lower than it was in February, before the invasion of Ukraine, by a more significant 1.1 points.

The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average of all surveyed countries’ National Indices. This month’s installment is based on a monthly survey of more than 17,000 adults under the age of 75 from 23 countries conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform. This survey was fielded between April 22 and May 6, 2022.

This month’s survey identifies significant month-over-month shifts (defined as gains or losses of at least 1.5 points at the country level) in the National Index and sub-indices of many countries. Most changes are downward, reflecting the disruptive effect of inflation, the war in Ukraine, and COVID-19.

Among the 23 countries, only Mexico and Israel show significant gains in their National Index since April while four countries – all in Europe – show significant declines: Great Britain, Sweden, Germany, and Hungary. In addition to seeing a decline in sentiment for the third straight month, Germany also shows significant losses across all three sub-indices (Expectations, Investment, Jobs).

A large number of countries, eight, show a significant drop since last month in their Investment Index, indicative of consumers’ purchasing and investment confidence and their financial situation and outlook. In addition, seven countries show a significant drop in their Expectations Index, indicative of consumers’ outlook about their future financial situation, local economy, and jobs environment.

However, jobs-related sentiment tends to hold up well. Only Germany shows a significant decline in its Jobs Confidence Index and it is up significantly in Israel, Mexico and Poland.

National Index Trends

This month, Saudi Arabia once again has the highest National Index score as China’s is down for the second consecutive month. This month marks only the third time in the last five years that China is not the country with the highest National Index score. With the price of oil continuing to rise and hundreds of millions of people in China remaining under some form of lockdown to control the Omicron variant, Saudi Arabia’s National Index score (69.9) now sits more than three points higher than China’s (66.6).

Five other countries show a National Index above the 50-point mark: India (63.8), Sweden (55.8), Australia (55.4), the United States (54.0), and Canada (50.8). However, it is no longer the case for Germany, which falls below this mark for the first time in 18 months.

At 29.3, Turkey continues to be the only country with a National Index below 35. The only other countries with a National Index below 40 are Argentina (36.9) and Japan (39.1).  

The number of countries now showing an index score that is significantly higher than it was in January 2020, pre-pandemic, is down to five: Saudi Arabia (+5.9), Australia (+4.8), India (+4.3), South Korea (+2.7) and France (+1.8).

In contrast, 11 of the 23 countries show a National Index that is significantly lower than it was pre-pandemic: the United States (-8.6), Poland (-7.5), Germany (-5.3), Turkey (-4.7), Great Britain (-4.0), Belgium (-3.8), Hungary (-3.7), Brazil (-3.6), Israel (-3.4), Argentina (-3.3), China (-3.1), and Canada (-1.5).

Jobs, Expectations, and Investment Index Trends

Among 23 countries:

• Seven show a significant drop (at least 1.5 points) in their Expectations Index, indicative of consumers’ financial, economic, and employment outlook: Sweden, Hungary, Great Britain, Germany, Belgium, France, and Italy. Israel is the only country that shows a significant gain.  
• Eight countries (Great Britain, Sweden, Germany, Hungary, China, Italy, Argentina, and South Africa) show significant losses in their Investment Index, indicative of consumers’ purchasing and investment confidence and their financial situation and outlook. Israel and Mexico are the only countries to show significant gains.
• Three countries show significant month-on-month gains in their Jobs Index: most of all Israel and then Mexico and Poland. In contrast, only Germany shows a significant drop.

About this study

These findings are based on data from Refinitiv/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers via Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform. The results are based on interviews with a total of 17,000+ adults aged 18-74 in the United States of America, Canada, Israel, Turkey, and South Africa; and aged 16-74 in all other markets each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China (mainland), France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain, and the U.S., and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.