Ipsos Predictions for 2018

The latest Ipsos Global @dvisor poll was carried out in 28 countries around the world at the end of 2017. It asked over 21,500 online adults aged under 64 their predictions for 2018.

The author(s)
  • Paul Abbate Global Lead, Global Advisor, Public Affairs, US
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The global picture

Despite a tense relationship between the US and North Korea, people are divided over the likelihood of the two countries starting a war against each other. Four in ten (42%) think that it’s likely, compared with 40% who think it’s unlikely. People in South Korea, though, are more likely to think it won’t happen – 66% say it’s unlikely.

Over half think (59%) that China will become the world’s biggest economy – with Japan (25%) and South Korea (37%) as most sceptical, followed by India (43%), Germany and the US (both 40%).

The countries with the highest levels of personal optimism for 2018 are Colombia (93% say 2018 will be better for them than 2017), Peru (93%), Chile (88%), China (88%), Mexico (87%) and India (87%). Optimism is lowest in Italy (60%), France (54%) and Japan (just 44%).

Other predictions:

  • Most countries think that the average global temperature will increase (71%). This prediction is particularly high in Serbia (87%), and ranked lowest in Russia and the US (both 56%).
  • Countries are divided on strength of the global economy – with emerging markets tending to be more positive. China (86%), India (83%) and Peru (81%) are most likely to think the global economy will be stronger in 2018 than 2017; Italy (43%), Japan (39%) and France (36%) are least confident.
  • Only 28% across the globe think that stock markets around the world will crash this year. This is highest in Malaysia (51%), Saudi Arabia and India (39%).
  • Angela Merkel remaining Germany’s Chancellor seen as more likely than President Trump being impeached. Half (48%) on average think Angela Merkel will remain Germany’s Chancellor (including 57% of Germans), compared to the 35% who think Trump will be impeached this year. It is a similar picture in the US itself – 33% of Americans think it likely the President will be impeached, but 49% believe it’s unlikely.
  • Globally, half (50%) think that Russia’s influence on world affairs will increase – with Serbia (80%) and Turkey (74%) most convinced (and 66% in Russia).
  • There are noticeable variations in concern about a terrorist attack. Half or more of people in Britain (65%), Turkey (60%), France (53%), Germany (51%) and the US (51%) think an attack in their country is likely, but in most of the countries surveyed only one in four or less think an attack is likely.
  • Close to 1 in 10 (12%) on average across the countries think it is likely that aliens will visit this year.
  • Half (49%) on average think it likely that a driverless car will make a government-approved debut in a developed country.
These are the findings of the Global @dvisor predictions survey for 2018.  In total 21,548 interviews were conducted between Nov 27 – Dec 8 2017 among adults aged 18-64 in the US and Canada, and adults aged 16-64 in all other countries. The survey was conducted in 28 countries around the world via the Ipsos Online Panel system.
The author(s)
  • Paul Abbate Global Lead, Global Advisor, Public Affairs, US