95% of MPs think Scotland will stay part of the UK

A new Ipsos poll finds that 95% of MPs think Scotland will vote ‘No’ in the upcoming Independence Referendum. 81 MPs from across the three main political parties were asked whether they think Scotland will vote ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ in the referendum on September 18th and, perhaps unsurprisingly, 100% of Conservatives thought it would be a no vote. 94% of Labour MPs and 89% of Liberal Democrats agreed that it would be a ‘No’ to independence.

When broken down by region, Welsh MPs were unanimous in their belief it would be a ‘No’ vote, whilst 95% of English and 88% of Scottish MPs also thought it will be a ‘No’ vote.

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Ben Page, CEO of Ipsos, said:

“MPs in the UK parliament do not agree on many things - but they virtually ALL agree that Scotland will remain part of the UK on 18th September at the Referendum. We have rarely seen such unanimity in 40 years of running this study and it is a reminder what a shock a Yes vote in Scotland would be.”

Technical Note

• Fieldwork dates: 9th June – 25th July 2014
• All data was collected through face to face interviews with MPs at their Westminster offices
• Data has been weighted to reflect the true balance by party and ministerial or spokesperson position