In an age of big data and focus on economic issues, trust in the use of statistics remains low

In light of the UK Statistics Authority’s criticism of the Department of Work and Pensions’ use of figures on welfare benefits, the misrepresentation of statistics is back in the spotlight. New research, conducted by Ipsos for the Royal Statistical Society and King’s College London reveals important challenges in trust in and the value given to statistics. The survey identified a lack of confidence in politicians using official statistics accurately when talking about their policies – only 7% felt they did so. Politicians were also the least trusted when providing information (8%). Scientists (74%) and academics (63%) are the most trusted. Sixty-one percent say they are confident they understand statistics in the context of government spending cuts. When asked if people could explain the difference between “debt” and “deficit”, 82% choose the correct definition. However, only half demonstrated that they actually do understand the definitions in the following question: “True or False: The national debt will always go down if the deficit is decreasing”. Twenty-eight percent answered ‘true’, and 20% didn’t know – while 52% correctly said this is false. This assumed confidence is partly reflected in the British public’s ability to answer simple mathematical questions – 92% correctly say that 50 is 25% of 200. However, their ability to deal with probabilities is much lower – only a quarter of the public know that the probability of getting two heads in two tosses of a coin is 25%. But the public appear to value understanding of numbers relatively lowly. People are four times more likely to say they would be proud of their children if they excelled in reading and writing (55%) than if they were very good at numbers (13%). Only 6% would be embarrassed to admit poor numeracy skills while 15% would be embarrassed to admit to poor reading and writing skills.

The findings of the survey also provide a useful snapshot of how the public makes up its mind. For example, 52% of the population still believe that politicians make their decisions based more on principle rather than evidence. This mirrors how the British public make their own decisions. When forming opinions on government performance, numbers are not the top priority. It is anecdotal and personal experience rather than statistics which seem to play the prominent role (by 46% to 9%).

• Download the survey topline (PDF)

Hetan Shah, Executive Director of the Royal Statistical Society said:

"Our economy now requires most people to handle data and numbers. It is really important that as a nation we up our data skills, before we get left behind.  The starting point is schools - Government is looking again at school curricula, and now is the time to really strengthen the quantitative and data handling skills of our young people. Secondly, we need all policymakers and politicians to get basic statistical training, so they know how to assess and use evidence. And finally we need journalists to get savvy about data, so we have fewer 'bacon cures cancer' type headlines. The RSS is running a campaign called 'getstats' to promote each of these strands. "

Bobby Duffy, Managing Director of Ipsos Social Research Institute said:

"It has never been more important for the public to understand and critically review statistical information on how our economy and society is doing.  It is therefore worrying that the public has so little confidence in the use of statistics, that their understanding of basic concepts of probability and the difference between debt and deficit is so shaky - and that relatively little value seems to be placed on statistical information or the skills needed to make sense of it." 

--> Technical note Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,034 adults aged 16-75 across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted online 9th-15th April 2013. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.