Business Leaders And The Euro

MORI's 2001 survey of "Captains of Industry" [Business Leaders' Support Grows For Single European Currency], published this week, finds these representatives of Britain's biggest companies divided by more than three to two in favour of Britain joining the euro. This, of course, contrasts with the opposition to joining of the majority of the public. The Captains have always been more euro-friendly than the public, but in the last two years before the 2001 study the gap had been narrowing; the most recent figures show a sharp business swing in favour of the single currency, though as the table shows the balance of opinions has effectively simply reverted to that from 1999.

Q How strongly do you agree or disagree with the statement "I support the principle of Britain participating in a single European currency".

Source: MORI Base: Captains of Industry (187 in 2001)

The Captains of Industry survey, conducted between September and November, was of course before currency went into circulation in the Eurozone, which is obviously one of those landmark moments which might conceivably lead to a sudden swing of opinion (but which might equally, of course, do nothing of the sort). On the other hand, it was after the September 11 attacks in the US, which are clearly reflected in respondents' fears for the future of the economy - 79% think the general economic condition of the country will deteriorate over the next 12 months. (Despite this only 25% expect business for their own company to get worse, while almost three-quarters think it will improve or stay the same; Britain's top business leaders have the same confidence in their own prospects for avoiding the consequences of economic slump as do the general public - see my commentary on this website a fortnight ago: The Economy And The Euro)

It is perhaps worth bearing in mind that the wording of the euro question in the Captains surveys is significantly different from that in most polls of the general public, which usually ask how respondents think they would vote in a referendum on the issue at a specific time, rather than the more general principle of participation. While for many, of course, there may be no distinction between the two questions, for others issues of timing and economic conditions may be paramount - this is, after all, essentially the government's stance, that joining the euro eventually is right in principle, but that the Chancellor's five economic tests must be met first, so it can't happen quite yet.

One series of questions which is a partial exception to this is a MORI trend last updated for GrahamBishop.com in June last year, which aims at identifying the "waverers" - those who say they might be swayed in their opinions on the euro by economic arguments - and which is couched in general terms rather than making any reference to a hypothetical immediate referendum. It is noticeable that this form of the question consistently draws a higher proportion of the public favourable to the euro than do the various versions of the referendum question.