Conservatives face uphill battle as public remains indifferent to leadership contest

A new Ipsos poll reveals that the British public is largely indifferent to the Conservative leadership race, with almost two-thirds (64%) saying they do not care who becomes the next leader of the Conservative Party. This lack of interest is consistent across age groups and includes almost a third (32%) of those who voted Conservative on July 4th saying that they do not care very much or at all.  

The poll, conducted among 1,100 British adults last weekend (Sept 20-23) also found that public awareness of the Conservative leadership candidates remains low. While Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nigel Farage are familiar faces, the same cannot be said for the Conservative hopefuls. Just 25% know a great deal or fair amount about James Cleverly, 21% Kemi Badenoch, 18% Robert Jenrick and 17% Tom Tugendhat.

When asked who would make a better Prime Minister, Keir Starmer holds a substantial lead over all the Conservative leadership contenders in hypothetical head to head match-ups.  Starmer leads Badenoch by 25 percentage points, Cleverly by 21 points, Jenrick by 22 points, and Tugendhat by 22 points.

The public is also sceptical that any of the Conservative leadership contenders will become Prime Minister in the future. When asked who is most likely to become Prime Minister if they win the leadership contest, 28% said none of them, while 33% said they don't know.  James Cleverly is seen as the most likely to become Prime Minister (14%), followed by Robert Jenrick (10%), Kemi Badenoch (8%), and Tom Tugendhat (6%). In reality differences overall are small. 

However, despite the widespread apathy about the Conservative leadership race, public confidence in the new Labour government is low, with 55% saying they do not have confidence that the government is running the country properly, competently, and seriously. In the wake of stories around the Prime Minister accepting free gifts from donors, the same percentage (55%) say they do not have confidence that the government is running the country with integrity. 

Keiran Pedley, Director of UK Politics at Ipsos said: 

The Conservative Party faces an uphill battle in the next general election. The public is largely indifferent to the leadership race, and the candidates are relatively unknown.  Furthermore, the public is sceptical that any of the candidates can beat Keir Starmer in a general election. The Conservatives will need to work hard to regain the trust of the British people if they want to regain power.

Technical Note

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,100 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain using our online omnibus. Interviews were conducted between 13th-16th  September 2024. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.