Conservatives open up gap over Labour on managing the economy

The Conservatives hold an 18 point lead over Labour on managing the economy, according to the latest Ipsos research, having been neck-and-neck in March. This follows six months of rising economic optimism. However, the public are split on which party would make them better off personally, with half saying it would make no difference.

Despite this, half of British adults don’t think it makes a difference to their family fortunes which party is in power. When asked whether they and their family would be better off under a Conservative or Labour government, 52% said it would make no difference. The remainder are split evenly between believing they would be better off under a Labour government (23%) or a Conservative government (22%).

Labour still hold a strong lead on healthcare. Around a third (36%) now say Labour have the best policies on health care, down from 46% last year, while the proportion backing the Conservatives has grown from 16% to 21% over the same period.

Labour also lead on education, housing and unemployment policy, while the Conservatives are seen to have the best policies on asylum and immigration and crime and anti-social behaviour. While the two parties are tied on Europe, with UKIP a close third (Conservatives 22%, Labour 21%, UKIP 18%).

More people see the Conservatives as being fit to govern than any other party. Just under half (47%) see the party as fit to govern – compared with 38% for the Labour Party, 17% for the Liberal Democrats and 14% for UKIP.

However, Labour are most likely to be seen as ‘understanding the problems facing Britain’ and ‘looking after the interests of people like me’. Just over four in ten (43%) say that Labour ‘looks after the interests of people like me’, compared with 30% for the Conservatives. Over half (55%) believe Labour understands the problems facing Britain, an 11 point lead over the Conservatives and Lib Dems (both 44%), and 41% for UKIP.

The poll also shows that both main parties are perceived as more divided than a year ago, in particular Labour. The public consider the Conservatives most divided, with 67% describing them as such. Six in ten (62%) now see Labour as divided, up 13 points since last year. The Liberal Democrats are also seen as divided by 62%, but only 28% say the same of UKIP.

UKIP are by far the most likely to be seen as different to the other parties. Almost three quarters of people (73%) see UKIP as different, compared with around half each for the Conservatives (52%), Labour (50%) and the Lib Dems (46%).

Other results from the poll show:

• There has been a 7 point rise in the number believing the Conservative party keeps its promises. However, trust in parties’ promises are still very low; only one in four believe that the Tories (26%), Labour (25%) and UKIP (24%) keep their promises, while the Liberal Democrats lag behind on 15%.

• Four in ten (39%) believe the Conservative party have a ‘good team of leaders’, compared with 27% for Labour and the Lib Dems and 21% for UKIP. The belief that Labour has a good team of leaders has fallen by 6 points since last year, while the Tories are up 4 points.

•  Around half each see the three main parties as out of date – 50% for Labour and the Conservatives, 46% for the Lib Dems. Four in ten (41%) say the same of UKIP.

• Despite a fall in support for Labour’s education policies by 5 points since last September, Labour still hold a lead on the issue. Three in ten (31%) say Labour has the best education policies, compared with 25% for the Conservatives.

• The Conservatives have narrowed the gap slightly on the issue of unemployment. Labour lead the Conservatives by 30% to 26%, from 35% vs 22% last September.

• Labour lead the Conservatives on the issue of housing by 32% to 18%, similar to last September.

• Support for the Conservatives’ asylum and immigration policies has fallen 4 points in the past year, narrowing their lead to 3 points; 22% now say the Conservatives have the best policies on the issue, with 19% backing Labour. One in nine (11%) back UKIP as the best party on immigration, with the Lib Dems on 6%.

• The Conservatives maintain their lead on crime and anti-social behaviour. Three in ten back the Conservatives on the issue (31%), compared with 19% for Labour.

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos said:

“The economy has been the number one issue facing the country for five straight years now, and after six consecutive months of rising economic optimism perhaps it is no surprise to see the Conservatives take a clear lead here. Meanwhile, the image of the parties going into conference season shows the challenges they face: the Conservatives are seen as the most fit to govern and with the best team of leaders, while Labour has the lead on understanding Britain’s problems and looking after the interests of the man and woman on the street. The Liberal Democrats have lost the mantle of the outsider party to UKIP.”

• Download the full topline results (PDF)
• Download the full computer tables (PDF)
• Download the charts (PDF)

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,000 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain, for the “party image” question, half of the sample (484) was asked about the Liberal Democrats and the other half (516) was asked about UKIP. Interviews were conducted by telephone 7^th – 9^th September 2013.  Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.