Fewer than 1 in 10 support the early prison release scheme

• Fewer than 1 in 10 Britons (8%) support the early release of certain prisoners, with 2 in 3 (69%) opposing the initiative. 
• Nearly 7 in 10 (68%) say they are not confident in the current Government's handling of crime and justice in the UK. 
• More than 6 in 10 (63%) hold the previous Conservative government responsible for prison overcrowding, compared with 45% for the current Labour government, though increasingly the current government is seen as responsible (+10 points since September 2024).

Overwhelming opposition to early prison release and rising concern over recidivism
Public opposition to releasing prisoners early to manage capacity issues has grown significantly over the past two years. 

• Fewer than 1 in 10 (8%) support the early release of certain prisoners, while 69% oppose the initiative, marking a 16-percentage point increase in opposition since September 2024 (53%). 
• Opposition spans political lines, though is higher among Reform UK voters (84%) and Conservative voters (80%), while 64% of 2024 Labour voters,  and 63% of Liberal Democrat voters oppose the policy. 
• Majorities expect early release to worsen crime: 63% expect levels of antisocial behaviour to increase, 59% expect increases in violent crime, and 58% believe the rate of recidivism will rise. 
   

Low public confidence in crime and justice leadership and services
Confidence in key institutions within the justice system remains subdued, with significant worries around sentencing and capacity. 

• 26% of British adults report feeling confident in the current Government's handling of crime and justice, compared with 68% who are not confident. This is on a par with the 29% who were confident in the previous Conservative government's handling in September 2021. 
• Public confidence is low across all criminal justice agencies: 37% express confidence in the police, 32% in the courts, 25% in the criminal justice system as a whole, 23% in probation services, and 21% in prisons. Majorities are not confident in each. 
• 80% view the time it takes for alleged criminals to go to trial as a serious problem, 79% say prison sentences being too short is a serious problem, and 74% consider prison overcrowding a serious problem. 
• While 62% still hold the previous Conservative government responsible for current prison overcrowding ("a great deal" or "a fair amount"), 45% hold the current Labour government responsible - though this is up from 35% in September 2024 saying at the time they held the newly elected Labour government responsible.

Commenting on the findings, Dr Helen Powell, Head of the Crime, Cohesion, and Security policy team at Ipsos in the UK, said:

The public remains concerned with the early release of prisoners as a solution to prison overcrowding, with opposition rising sharply across the political spectrum over the past two years, but most prominently amongst 2024 Labour and Lib Dem voters. This resistance is rooted in anxieties over public safety, as majorities expect early releases to drive up antisocial behaviour, violent crime, and reoffending rates.

While a majority still attribute the broader crisis in prison capacity to the previous Conservative administration, scrutiny on the current Government's response is mounting. While Britons strongly support victim-focused sentencing, rehabilitation and tougher community measures, there is little appetite for shorter sentences or early release.

How this scheme ends up being executed will be the first real test for Andy Burnham’s government, and will require balancing acute operational pressures in prisons against a public that demands tough sentencing, better protection for victims, and clear reassurances on public safety.

Technical notes:

• Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,084 online adults in Great Britain aged 18–75. Polling was conducted online between 7–11 August 2026. 
• Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.