Financial Times Election Research - Poll 3

More Labour supporters are now galvanised to turn out to vote than at the beginning of the election, providing a boost to Labour's potential election victory on May 5.

Of those who now say they are "absolutely certain to vote", 59 per cent of the electorate 67 per cent of Labour supporters now say they'll get to the ballot box for sure (up 10 points from the beginning of April), only 4 per cent fewer than Tory supporters (71 per cent, down 3). This compares to a 19 percent lead on turnout to the Tories at the start of the campaign.

Labour is now on 40 per cent, the Conservatives on 32 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 21 per cent, an eight point lead for Mr Blair.

These figures, if replicated on May 5, would assuming a national uniform swing, deliver a third term landslide to Mr Blair of some 138 seat majority over all other parties. While this would cost some 20 Labour MPs their seats, it would still give the prime minister a substantial majority with which to do pretty well what he likes.

Topline Results

• MORI interviewed 1,005 British adults aged 18+ by telephone between 15 -18 April 2005
• Data are weighted to the national population profile
• An (*) indicates a finding of less than 0.5%, but greater than zero
• Where percentages do not add up to exactly 100% this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't knows" or to multiple answers

Voting Intentions -- all absolutely certain to vote (59%)

Q1 How do you intend to vote in the General Election on May 5th? Will you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or for another party? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1 Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: 600 British adults

Voting Intentions -- all naming a party

Q1 How do you intend to vote in the General Election on May 5th? Will you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or for another party? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1 Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Q3 And how likely will you be to vote in the General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?

Q4 Which of these statements come closest to your views of Mr Blair?

Q5 Which of these statements come closest to your views of Mr Howard?

Q6 Since it was elected in May 1997, do you think the government has done a good job or a bad job at managing the economy?

Q7 Since it was elected in May 1997, do you think the government has done a good job or a bad job at handling taxation and public expenditure?

Q8 If a Labour Government is elected after the next general election, do you think it will or will not increase tax?

Q9 If a Conservative Government is elected after the next general election, do you think it will or will not increase tax?

Q10 Do you think a Labour or a Conservative Government would be most effective in getting good value for the public money it spends?

Q11 If Labour wins the coming General Election, do you think Tony Blair should or should not step down as Prime Minister at some point during the next Parliament?

Q12 When do you think he should step down? Base: 560 who say Blair should step down