General Election 2001 - Election Digest
Election Commentary - Constituency Polls - How Not To Do It
Today's Daily Record carries polling results from six marginal seats in Scotland, and compares the results with those that it published in the same six marginal seats last week. In today's column, Dr Mortimore looks at the results to find unreliably small sample sizes and a less than ideal presentation of the data.
Latest Gallup/Telegraph Survey Highlights Likely Voters' Intentions Survey In Scotland's Most Marginal Seats Shows Huge Swings
Latest Gallup/Telegraph Survey Highlights Likely Voters' Intentions
Gallup's latest survey finds that among the 66% most likely voters, Labour's lead over the Tories is 16%. Among this group, Labour are on 48%, the Tories 32%, and the Liberal Democrats 13%. Among all eligible voters (the group whose voting intentions are conventionally reported), the Labour lead over the Tories rises to 19%, although the Telegraph does not report the vote shares on this basis.
Two-thirds (66%) agree with a policy of extended public spending on key services, even if it means some taxation increases; a fifth (20%) favour no change on current tax and spend policy, and 11% favour tax cuts, even if this means reduction on spending on key public services. Asked which of the two main parties' stances on tax and spend more closely resembles their own views, voters favour Labour's approach by almost two to one (57% to 29%).
Reminded of Tory manifesto pledges to achieve 1638 billion in tax cuts whilst maintaining the present government's public spending plans, 68% did not believe the Tories could achieve this through savings made elsewhere; 27% believed they can. On the issue of Britain in Europe, 48% of voters felt more aligned with Labour policy, whilst 38% did so with Tory policy. On crime, of the 64% of voters who were optimistic about any government's ability to bring about a major reduction in crime, 46% thought Labour are more likely to achieve such a reduction, compared to the 40% who believe the Tories can achieve this.
The 66% of voters who said they will definitely vote at the Election is the lowest such figure recorded by Gallup. If borne out on June 7 the turnout will be the lowest since 1918, according to the Telegraph.
Source: The Daily Telegraph, 17 May 2001. Technical details: Gallup interviewed 1,331 adults by telephone between 14-15 May 2001.
Survey In Scotland's Most Marginal Seats Shows Huge Swings
A Scottish Opinion/Daily Record survey in Scotland's six most marginal seats - Ayr, Eastwood, Edinburgh Pentlands, Stirling, Tayside North, and Perth - shows major changes in voting intentions.
The Record reports that in Stirling, where a week ago the previous poll in the series found a SNP lead over Labour of 8%, Labour now appear to lead by 28%; the Record describes this as "a statistical blip".
The sample size was only 911 across the six constituencies.
Source: The Daily Record 17 May 2001. Technical details: Survey by Scottish Opinion Ltd. Sample: 911 in six Scottish marginal constituencies, interviewed by telephone on 10-14 May 2001.
