Reform hold 6-point lead over Labour and the Conservatives

• Reform UK still hold a clear lead on 25%, but this lead is six points  - one point down from March. This continues a steady decline in Reform’s vote share from a high of 34% in September 2025
• Labour and the Conservatives are now tied on 19%. Labour are down two points, and the Conservatives are up two points.
• The Greens stay on 17% - matching their record high with Ipsos last month.
• The Liberal Democrats (14%) are up 5 points from March. 
   

Headline voting intention (Changes since March)

Reform UK continue to lead on headline voting intention. However they are down to 25% - their lowest vote share since the 2024 General Election. Labour and the Conservatives are tied in second place on 19%.

• Reform 25% (-3)
• Labour 19% (-2)
• Conservative 19% (+2)   
• Greens 17% (No change)
• Lib Dems 14% (+5)
• Others 7% (-1)
• Reform UK lead: +6 (down one point from March)

Satisfaction ratings (Changes since January)

Each month Ipsos ask the public whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with how the government are running the country and how various politicians are doing their jobs; Keir Starmer as Prime Minister, Rachel Reeves as Chancellor and various other politicians as leaders of their respective parties. Here is a summary of this month’s scores:

• Government: 16% satisfied (-1 from March), 78% dissatisfied (+3). Net satisfaction -62.
• Keir Starmer: 18% satisfied (-1), 74% dissatisfied (+2). Net satisfaction -56.
• Kemi Badenoch: 25% satisfied (+4), 52% dissatisfied (-4). Net satisfaction -27.
• Nigel Farage: 29% satisfied (nc), 59% dissatisfied (+1). Net satisfaction -30.
• Ed Davey: 25% satisfied (+4), 41% dissatisfied (-2). Net -16.
• Zack Polanski: 28% satisfied (-2), 42% dissatisfied (+5). Net -14.
• Rachel Reeves: 13% satisfied (nc), 72% dissatisfied (+2). Net -59.

Most capable PM (Changes since March)

• Keir Starmer: 21% (-1)
• Nigel Farage: 19% (nc)
• Kemi Badenoch: 15% (+4)
• None/no difference: 27% (-2)
   

Of the findings, Ipsos Director of Politics Keiran Pedley said:

As we head into the local elections British politics is in a fractured state – with just 8 percentage points separating the top four parties. Reform UK and the Greens have gained significantly since the General Election – and comparable local elections to those taking place – so we should expect them to have a good night on May 7th.

Technical note

• For media queries, please contact Owen Evans at [email protected] or 07814211915.
• For the full findings, please visit the Ipsos website. 
   

Ipsos interviewed a representative probability sample of 1,044 British adults aged 18+, via the Ipsos UK KnowledgePanel. Data was collected between the 9th – 15th April  2026. Panel members are recruited via random probability sampling, by sending letters to randomly selected addresses, which invites them to join an online panel. This approach means every household in the UK had a known and non-zero chance of being selected to join the KnowledgePanel. Those who are digitally excluded are provided with a tablet and free, restricted data connection. A sample of 2,253 adults aged 18+ were invited to take part in the survey. The sample was stratified by nation, age, qualifications and vote at the 2024 general election (as collected immediately after the election). The achieved sample was weighted in two stages:

• Design weights were applied to correct for the unequal probabilities of a person being selected for a survey, notably residents in smaller households have a higher chance of being selected.
• Calibration weights were applied through rim weighting to correct for differential non-response. Data was weighted to the adult population profile on age and gender, Government Office region, ethnicity, qualifications, work status and work sector (public sector/other), social grade (office coded), number of cars in household, constituency type, and newspaper readership (print and digital). Population targets were obtained from the 2021/22 Census, ONS population estimates and other large-scale probability surveys. 
      

All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures. 

• Note that this is a new methodology implemented since June 2025. It involves a new form of data collection (online random probability panel instead of quota telephone survey), an updated voting intention (which involves prompting for Reform UK), and an updated weighting scheme.  This is based on our learnings during and since the 2024 General Election.  This means that comparisons with previous waves need to be made with caution.