General Election '97 Result
Association Of Professional Opinion Polling Organisations
The 1997 British General Election is as much a test of the pollsters as of the Parties. In 1992, the forecast of the share of the vote for each party by each of the pollsters, Gallup, Harris, ICM, MORI and NOP, was wider of the actual result than ever before.
As a result, throughout this election campaign, the publication of nearly every poll was accompanied by carping that the polls could not possibly be right, that they had again under estimated the Conservative share, and it was "inconceivable" that Labour could win by the margins indicated.
Not so in the 1997 General Election.
Yesterday, the five polling companies that comprise the full Members of APOPO (The Association of Professional Opinion Polling Organisations) got the average of the share of the vote for each party within the usually accepted plus or minus three per cent sampling tolerance. (See Table).
Traditionally, the principals of the five polling agencies meet on the day the election is called to put their own guess as to the outcome of the election into a sealed envelope, accompanied by a suitable note. The winner for this election was Bob Wybrow, Director of the Gallup Organisation.
Gallup, Harris, ICM, MORI, NOP Associate Members: Beaufort Research, ORB, System 3 (Scotland)
| Final Opinion Polls | Exit Polls | ||||||||
| Pollster | Harris | NOP | ICM | Gallup | MORI | Poll of polls | MORI | NOP | Final Result |
| Client | Indy | Reuters | Guardian | D Tel | Eve Std | ITN | BBC | ||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Con | 31 | 28 | 33 | 33 | 29 | 31 | 30 | 29 | 31 |
| Lab | 48 | 50 | 43 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 46 | 47 | 45 |
| Lib Dem | 15 | 14 | 18 | 14 | 19 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 17 |
| Others | 6 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| Ave error | 1.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | - |
Source: APOPO (Association of Professional Opinion Polling Organisations)
