Government Delivery Index

Not A Happy Xmas: Despite halting the slide in public expectations for public services and the NHS, the long-term trend is still down.

The British public continue to be sceptical about the government's ability to improve the state of Britain's economy and public services, according to the latest Ipsos Government Delivery Index -- our regular 'health check' on government performance and public expectations for the future of the economy and public services.

In the latest Government Delivery Index survey, conducted between 17-18 November 2006, two in five British adults (39%) think that the government's policies will improve the state of Britain's economy in the long-term, although half (51%) disagree, giving a negative net score of -12. The public are therefore more worried about the economy than was the case in September, when the net score was -6.

The public is also concerned about the future of Britain's public services. Those who think the government's policies will be good for public services generally are outnumbered by those who think they will make public services worse (33% versus 57% -- a net score of -24). While this is an improvement of four points since September, it is still a long way from the optimism seen immediately after the 2005 General Election (the net score has fallen 22 points since then).

Similarly, while this month has seen a halt in the slide in future expectations for the NHS that we have seen since the election, overall feelings continue to be among the lowest levels recorded by the Government Delivery Index since it started in March 2002. Almost half (46%) of the British public think that the NHS will get worse over the next few years, compared with around one in five (19%) thinking it will get better, giving a net score of -27. This has improved by five points since September, but has a long way to go to get back to the positive rating of +9 seen at the time of the 2005 General Election.

Public optimism about policing and public transport have also improved slightly since September, with net optimism for policing rising by three points to -2 and net optimism for public transport rising by three points to -3. Unlike other services, the long-term trend for public transport is up, perhaps reflecting rises in the numbers of rail passengers and satisfaction with performance.

However, there are signs that the public are beginning to get concerned about the future of education - which has previously been the government's 'success story'. Around one in three (31%) believe that education will improve, while around one in four (26%) believe that it will get worse, giving a net optimism score of +5. Although this is still more positive than for other public services, there has been a broad downward drift in the public's expectations of education over the last four years -- optimism peaked at +23 in September 2002.

Perhaps reflecting recent debate over climate change and the environment, three in ten (29%) think that the quality of the environment will get better over the next few years, while over four in ten (44%) believe it will get worse, giving a net score of -15, down from -10 in September.

Topline Results

• Ipsos interviewed 980 Great Britain adults 18+.
• Fieldwork conducted by telephone between 17-18 November 2006.
• Data weighted to the national population profile.
• An '*' indicates a finding of less than 0.5%, but greater than zero.
• Where percentages do not add up to exactly 100% this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't knows" or to multiple answers.

On balance do you agree or disagree that...

Q1 In the long term, this government's policies will improve the state of Britain's economy?

Q2 In the long term, this government's policies will improve the state of Britain's public services?

Q3-7 Thinking about ... over the next few years do you expect it to ... ?