Ipsos Economic Pulse - Wave 58

The latest Ipsos Economic Pulse reveals a drop in economic confidence in Russia - even before the recently announced increase in economic sanctions. Just under half of Russians (47%) rate their country’s economic situations as good, compared with 58% last month. Fieldwork for the poll was prior to the MH-17 plane crash in Ukraine, following which tensions between Russia and the West have heightened still further.

This is still up from 31% this time last year, however, prior to the Ukraine revolution. Russians remain more economically optimistic than the British, 39% of whom rate the UK economy as good, down slightly from their highest ever score of 43% last month. They also rate higher than the US, who are stable from last month on 38%.

Economic confidence among both Swedes and Brazilians is up by 11 percentage points on last month. Three quarters (75%) of Swedes rate their economy as good, up from 64% last month, as they rebounded (albeit less strongly than expected) from contraction in the first quarter of 2014. Despite lower economic confidence in the run up to the World Cup, meanwhile, Brazilian economic confidence bounced back as the World Cup progressed, with 31% rating their economy ‘good’, up from the previous month’s 20% – though fieldwork finished before their fateful semi-final with Germany.

Argentinians’ confidence has also risen, despite their government risking default in negotiations with investors. A quarter (24%) of Argentines rate their economy as good, up from 18% last month.

Polish economic confidence has fallen, meanwhile, following the ‘Waitergate’ scandal involving secret recordings of central Bank Governor Marek Belka, with the proportion saying their economic situation is good falling from 31% last month to 25% this month. There has been a similar fall in South Africa following the re-election of the African National Congress and Jacob Zuma to power - the proportion saying their economic situation is good is now down to 23%, from 28% last month.

Saudi Arabia (85%) and Germany (76%) remain the most economically confident countries studied, with Spain (8%), France and Italy (both 7%) least confident. They are joined at the bottom of the economic confidence league table by Romania in their first Economic Pulse reading, on 14%.

Ben Marshall, Research Director at Ipsos, said:

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Technical Note: These are the findings of the Global @dvisor Wave 58 (G@58),an Ipsos survey conducted between June 3rd and June 17th, 2014. The survey instrument Global @dvisor is conducted monthly in 25 countries via the Ipsos Online Panel system.  For the results of the survey herein, an total sample of 18,011 adults age 18-64 in the US and Canada, and age 16-64 in all other countries, was interviewed between June 3-17, 2014. Approximately 1000+ individuals were surveyed in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, Spain and the United States. Approximately 500+ individuals were surveyed in Argentina, Belgium, Egypt, Hungary, India, Mexico, Poland, Romania, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. In countries where internet penetration is approximately 60% or higher the data output is comparable the general population. Of the 25 countries surveyed online, 15 yield results that are balanced to reflect the general population: Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States. The ten remaining countries surveyed –Brazil (45.6% Internet penetration among the citizenry), China (41%), India (11.4%), Indonesia (22.1%), Mexico (36.5%), Romania (44.1%), Russia (47.7%), Saudi Arabia (49%), South Africa (17.4%) and Turkey (45.7%)—have lower levels of connectivity therefore are not reflective of the general population; however, the online sample in these countries are particularly valuable in their own right as they are more urban/educated/income than their fellow citizens and are often referred to as “Upper Deck Consumer Citizens”. The precision of Ipsos online polls are calculated using a credibility interval with a poll of 1,000 accurate to +/- 3.5 percentage points and of 500 accurate to +/- 5.0 percentage points. For more information on the Ipsos use of credibility intervals, please visit the Ipsos website.