Labour maintains lead with Conservatives falling back to equal their lowest ever vote share

• Labour lead voting intentions by 42% (-1 from early June) to Conservatives’ 19% (-4)
• Reform UK up 6 points to 15% (highest share with Ipsos), LibDems up 3 to 11%. 
• Rishi Sunak most unpopular Prime Minister with Ipsos ever at this stage of campaign.
• Just over a third say they may change their mind before polling day.
• 72% say they dislike the Conservatives (a record high), their worst score, and 78% think it is time for a change

The latest Ipsos Political Monitor, taken 21st – 24th June 2024, asks the public who they will vote for at the upcoming General Election, as well as their attitudes to the parties and their leaders, and policies on key issues. The poll also asks if the Conservative government deserves to be re-elected and if Labour is ready for government. 

Voting intention 

In the second and penultimate Ipsos voting intention poll of the General Election campaign Labour holds a 23-point lead over the Conservatives.

Conservative 19% (-4 from 31st May – 4th June), 
Labour 42% (-1) 
Reform UK 15% (+6) 
Liberal Democrat 11% (+3) 
Greens 7% (-2)

• More than one in three say they may change their mind before the election (36%. At this stage in December 2019 it was 27%. 44% of current Conservative voters and 45% of Liberal Democrats say they may change their mind compared to one in three Labour voters (33%) and 29% of Reform UK supporters.
• Among those who may change their mind, 21% are considering Labour, 19% the Lib Dems and 14% the Greens, 7% are considering the Conservatives and 7% Reform UK. 
• 64% of voters say they are voting for the party that best represents their views. 19% are voting tactically – they agree “The party you support has little chance of winning in this constituency so you vote for the [party] to try and keep another party out”. This is higher than we have seen in previous elections, it stood at 14% in 2019.  This may be benefiting the Lib Dems as 36% of those voting Lib Dem say this is why they are voting for the party, as do 25% of those voting Labour, but only 13% of those voting Conservative and 10% for Reform UK.  
• 50% say it is very important to them who wins the next General Election unchanged from early June. This is lower than the 65% who said the same in December 2019, but on a par with the figure in May 2017.

Attitudes towards the government and party leaders

• 83% are dissatisfied with the way the government is running the country (nc from early June).  This is the worst score for a government in Ipsos’ records at this stage of a campaign going back to 1979 (when it was 64% for Callaghan’s government; the previous worst was 72% for Boris Johnson’s government in December 2019).
• 20% are satisfied with the job Rishi Sunak is doing as Prime Minister (nc). 75% are dissatisfied (+2). His net score of -55 is the worst for any Prime Minister tracked by Ipsos at this stage of an election campaign going back to 1979. The previous worst was John Major in 1997 (-27).
• 33% are satisfied with the job Keir Starmer is doing (+2 from early June), 52% dissatisfied (nc).  If he wins the election, his net score of -19 would be the worst for a Leader of the Opposition entering Number 10 (worse than Thatcher, Blair and Cameron).
• Starmer is considered the more capable Prime Minister over Sunak by a margin of 46% to 21%.  Little changed from the start of the month when these figures were 46% and 22% respectively.
• Ed Davey’s personal satisfaction ratings as leader of the Liberal Democrats rise 7 points since early June to 30%, while 35% are dissatisfied (-6), 35% don’t know. This is a similar satisfaction rating to that for Jo Swinson in December 2019 (29%), although she had a higher critical number who were dissatisfied (51%).   Although Ed Davey’s ratings are not as strong as Nick Clegg in 2010, or Charles Kennedy in 2005/2001, or Paddy Ashdown in 1997.

Do the public like the parties / leaders?

• 67% dislike Sunak (up from 49% a year ago, and the same as Boris Johnson in 2022), while 72% dislike the Conservative party – up from 67% a year ago and the worst figure Ipsos has seen for them since the series started in 2007.
• 34% like Starmer (-3 from March), and 57% dislike him (+5). This is Keir Starmer’s worst score but not as bad as the 73% who disliked Jeremy Corbyn in November 2019. 
• Half (50%) say they like the Labour party (+3), making it the most liked party asked about.
• 30% say they like Nigel Farage, 59% do not – similar to his figures in 2015 although a slight improvement on 2019 (when 67% said they did not like him as leader of the Brexit Party). 
• Figures for Reform UK as a party are similar – 27% like, 62% dislike.  Among 2019 Conservatives 53% like Farage (the same as the 53% who like Sunak) and 48% like Reform (55% like the Conservative Party)
• 34% like the Green party’s co-leaders, 33% do not, 38% like the Green party, 29% do not (but 32% don’t know).
• 36% like Ed Davey, 41% do not. 35% like the Lib Dems, 42% do not – similar positive scores but not as many negatives as for Jo Swinson’s LibDems in 2019.

Economic optimism

• Economic optimism is unchanged from the start of the month. 28% think it will improve in the next 12 months (nc), 25% say it will stay the same (-) and 38% get worse (+1). This means the Ipsos net Economic Optimism Index now stands at -10 versus -9 at the start of the month. However, this is still much better than April when it was -31.

Best party on key issues

Labour leads the Conservatives as having the best policies on most key issues, including:

• Healthcare by 41% to 9% (equalling the Conservatives’ lowest ever score on this since 1978)
• Managing the economy by 33% to 23%
• Reducing the cost of living, by 36% to 15% 
• Asylum and immigration (although only by 25% to 12%, with Reform UK second on 17% - the Conservatives’ lowest score since the series started in 2005)

The Conservatives are only slightly ahead on defence, by 27% to 24% (although Labour have narrowed the gap since October), while both parties are behind the Greens on the environment (where 40% think the Greens have the best policies, compared with 14% for the Conservatives and 8% for Labour).
 

Do the Conservatives deserve to be re-elected / Is Labour ready for government / Starmer ready to be PM / time for change?

• Half (49%) say Labour is ready for government, up 2 points since early June. 34% disagree (nc).  This is the highest level Labour has recorded under Keir Starmer’s leadership.
• Meanwhile 71% do not think the Conservatives deserve to be re-elected (+4 from early June), only 16% think they do (-4).  
• 41% agree Keir Starmer is ready to be Prime Minister (+8pts from May) and 40% disagree (-1).  
• 78% think it is time for change at the next General Election. This is up from 73% in May and 69% at the start of the year.

 Gideon Skinner, Senior Director of UK Politics at Ipsos, said:

The Conservatives are finding themselves unable to turn the tide of public opinion, with 7 in 10 or more unhappy with the Prime Minister and with the government’s performance, disliking the Conservative party and overall just wanting a change.  Whilst a relatively high one in three say they may still change their mind, at the moment there is little sign of this benefiting the Conservatives. 
In fact, with Labour ahead on the key issues of this election, people have become more open to the prospect of a Starmer government since the campaign began, and there are also signs of tactical voting among Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters.   At the same time the Conservatives are also being challenged on the other flank by the rise of Reform, particularly on the issue of asylum and immigration, with Nigel Farage as popular among 2019 Conservatives as Rishi Sunak. 
So far this has been a campaign to forget for the Conservatives, but the fundamental challenges they were facing in public opinion were in place even before the election was called.

Technical note

• Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,402 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain (of whom 872 gave a voting intention figure and passed the turnout filter to be included in the headline figure). Interviews were conducted by telephone between the 21st to  24th June 2024. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. 
• As is standard practice at this stage in the campaign, voting intention figures are now based on those who say they are registered to vote, but this makes no difference to the results.  After being asked the regular voting intention questions, participants who told us they would be voting for Reform UK or the Green Party were then asked: “And if there was no [INSERT PARTY NAME] candidate in your constituency, how you vote?”. In the very small number of seats where the Greens or Reform are not standing, their answers have been reallocated to their second party preference. This also has neglible impact on the voting intention figures making no difference to any parties apart from Labour (+1ppt).