Labour slumps in Ayr

So, the Conservatives have comfortably gained Ayr from Labour in the first by-election to the Scottish Parliament (as the polls suggested they would! - ICM/Scotsman poll, Scottish Opinion/Daily Record poll), with Labour convincingly beaten into third by the Scottish National Party, and their Liberal Democrat coalition partners slipping to fifth behind the Scottish Socialist Party. What, if anything, are the wider implications for Labour, and for the Tories?

The turnout was down since last year's Scottish general election - 57% as against 66% - but not unduly so for a mid-term by-election.

The Conservatives have made much play of their support for retaining "Section 28" (the law that prevents local authorities from promoting homosexuality, especially in schools), which all the other Scottish parties are committed to repealing. Polls confirm that their stance is much the more popular, both across Scotland as a whole [MORI Scotland poll on Clause 28] and, specifically, in the Ayr constituency. But it is clear that this issue contributed little or nothing to the Tory victory. In fact, the Conservative share of the vote barely rose since last year (from 38% then to 39% in the by-election); the victory was secured because there was a 13% swing from Labour to the SNP, with Labour's share of the vote slumping from 38% to 22%. But the SNP is as supportive of repealing Clause 28 as is Labour.

Indeed, the poll evidence confirmed the unimportance of the Section 28 issue - ICM's poll looked at all the Ayr voters who said they had supported Labour in 1999, and divided them by whether they wanted Section 28 repealed or retained - they found 44% of the repealers and 40% of the retainers sticking with Labour, not a statistically significant difference. This is very bad news for the Tories - having found an issue on which most of the electorate feels very strongly, and having positioned themselves on much the more popular side of the debate with all their opponents on the unpopular side, they still cannot win votes by it. Whether it is because they have failed to get across their message of who stands where, or because the voters don't consider this an issue relevant to a Scottish Parliament by-election, or because those of the three in five Ayr voters who are not Tories but support Section 28 have an even greater abhorrence of Toryism than of promoting homosexuality in schools, we do not know. If the Conservative Party's private polls have not already told them the answer, they ought to be finding out, and fast.

Labour can plausibly put their slump down to 'mid-term blues', though it shouldn't be any consolation. It seems to confirm the findings of numerous polls across Great Britain in the last few months, that the government is losing much of its popularity but maintaining its voting position simply because the Conservative opposition is not credible. Where disillusioned Labour voters have an alternative to which they feel able to turn - as in the case of the SNP in Ayr, and indeed throughout Scotland, and Plaid Cymru in Wales - they are prepared to vote for it. In local government, as a string of by-elections have been indicating, the acceptable alternatives seem also to include the Liberal Democrats and even the Tories. Voters, perhaps, are happy to vote for a Tory council when they back away from voting for a Tory government. (This, too, was illustrated in the ICM poll in Ayr, which found the Tories ten points ahead of Labour in by-election voting intention but only one point ahead if the voting had been for Westminster: nobody should assume that anti-Tory tactical voting is dead.)

But Labour cannot afford to be complacent. To some extent the party is insulated from damage in Scotland and Wales, because they contain so few marginal seats - even a sharp drop in the vote (or the turnout) will cause embarrassment rather than serious damage to the majority. Yet that is not entirely true. A swing like yesterday's across Scotland would give seven of Labour's Westminster seats to the SNP and five to the Tories; in Wales the Tories would gain three (again, purely from being left in the lead, without gaining any votes, as Labour support ebbed away to Plaid Cymru), the Liberal Democrats one and Plaid Cymru one. Furthermore, this may be an underestimate: even the SNP's own campaigners must have known in their heart of hearts that every SNP yesterday was a wasted vote, and if diverted from Labour only helped ensure Tory victory. What swing could we expect when it is the SNP that has the chance of winning the seat?

One factor that Labour has to set against this, as already noted, is that there may still be an anti-Tory tactical vote, which they may hope will shore up their support - and, especially, the turnout - when it comes to the next Westminster election. As discontent with the government increases, not just in the devolved administrations but in England as well, it is a lifeline that they will need increasingly to hang on to. In electoral terms, the few Scottish and Welsh marginals are small change, but the seats Labour won from the Tories in England last time will be a decisive battleground. Even assuming - as almost everybody does - that Labour cannot fail to win the next general election, the size of the majority will be of huge significance to campaigning momentum in the following Parliament, to the likely result of a referendum on the Euro (or, indeed, to whether Mr Blair dares hold it), and to the personal career of William Hague and, perhaps, of Tony Blair himself.

Maintaining public distaste for the Tories is, mostly, out of Mr Blair's hands and in Mr Hague's. However, the signs are that, for the moment, Mr Hague is doing a good job - for Mr Blair. Last month's MORI poll for The Times found just 22% satisfied with the job he is doing as leader (55% dissatisfied), 26% "like his policies" (53% dislike them), and 29% like him (50% dislike him). Oh, and by the way, before Mr Hague's opponents in the party jump to the obvious conclusion, Michael Portillo's ratings are worse, and moving downwards. What can the Tories do?

Well, one thing they have tried to do, reasonably enough, is find some policy issues where they differ from the government and can harness themselves to the more popular side. Ayr has shown how this didn't work with Clause 28. This week's Gallup poll in the Daily Telegraph showed that the Tory touchstone policy of opposition to early entry to the euro is similarly failing the party. The policy is popular: in a referendum, 69% of the public would vote against joining the Single Currency and abolishing the pound. Most voters understand the party positions: 68% feel that of the two major parties Labour is the more pro-European, and only 21% think the Tories are. Yet 50% feel that Labour "more closely represents your own views about Britain's future in Europe" than the Conservatives. There seem to be too many voters out there who will not connect policy and party if it means being sympathetic to the Tories.

So, no need for Labour to panic yet, though Ayr s a symptom of a political malaise that can do them a lot of harm in Scotland and Wales, and perhaps in English local government. (London, for a start.) But, if the Tories somehow suddenly find the magic touch to revive their own reputation, it may be a whole new ballgame.