Leadership Poll For The Sun

Ipsos's latest poll for the Sun, conducted by telephone from 9-10 January 2008, shows the Conservatives with a ten point lead over Labour (42% compared to 32%) among those who say they are certain to vote.

Gordon Brown is viewed as a more capable Prime Minster than David Cameron (37% compared to 33%). However, Mr Brown's 4-point lead over Mr Cameron on this factor is a drop from two months ago: Mr Brown held a 16 point lead in October 2007, and a 41 point lead in September 2007. This illustrates how effective Mr Cameron has been at gaining ground on the Prime Minister, who has recently faced a series of issues including lost data disks and a donations furore.

Mr Brown is also seen as better than Mr Cameron on 'understanding the problems facing Britain' (36% compared to 30%) and being 'good in a crisis' (45% compared to 27%) -- although the PM's record on these qualities has also dropped off since September 2007, and Mr Cameron has made very notable gains (doubling his ratings in both cases).

In addition, the Conservative leader has now overtaken Mr Brown on two key qualities: Mr Cameron is seen as 'leading the most united team' (34% compared to 27%) and as best 'able to deal with the challenges of the 21st century' (37% compared to 34%).

Topline Results

• Ipsos interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,006 adults in Great Britain aged 18 and over.
• Interviews were conducted by telephone between 9-10 January 2008.
• Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
• Where percentages do not sum to 100, this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't know" categories, or multiple answers.
• An asterisk (*) denotes any value of less than half a per cent.
• Download the data tabulations pdf, 223KB

Voting -- all absolutely certain to vote

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (517)

Voting -- all

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All naming a party (1,006)

Q3 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote? Base: 1,006 British adults 18+

Q4 Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister -- Gordon Brown or David Cameron?

Q5-8 In choosing between Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Conservative leader David Cameron or Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg, which leader do you think ...

* In September the question asked about Sir Menzies Campbell rather than Nick Clegg