May’s striking ratings suggest she will outdo her predecessor

2015.  One of the clearest signs of the Conservatives’ eventual election victory (with hindsight – yes we know…) was the way they were beating Labour on public perceptions of leadership.  Since Ipsos started polling in the 1970s, no party leader had won an election with ratings at the start of an election year as low as Ed Miliband’s were in January 2015.  Meanwhile, during the campaign itself public opinion gave David Cameron a clear lead over his rival as the most capable Prime Minister, by 42% to 27%.  Labour’s status as the most ‘liked’ party, and its lead on issues such as the NHS, weren’t enough. 

It’s now 2017, and the Conservatives are stressing “strong and stable leadership” once again.  So far, it seems to be working - even more successfully this time round.   Voting is at least in part a comparative exercise, and when asked who they think is the most capable PM 61% of the public choose Theresa May and only 23% Jeremy Corbyn – a lead for Mrs May even bigger than David Cameron’s was. 

What’s more, Mrs May’s score is the highest we’ve ever recorded for a party leader since we started asking the question back in 1979 (although, to be fair, Jeremy Corbyn’s isn’t quite the lowest). In May 1983 Margaret Thatcher led Michael Foot by 48% to 16% (even David Steel was ahead of Foot at 22%), and in May 2001 Tony Blair led William Hague by 52% to 12%.  There was even one month in 2007 when Gordon Brown led David Cameron by 58% to 17% (David Cameron, of course, had time to turn that round by the election).

The strength of the Prime Minister’s support among her own voters is also striking.  Ninety-eight per cent – as near to 100% as you’ve ever going to get in an opinion poll – of Conservative voters say she will make the best Prime Minister, and 95% are satisfied with her performance.  Among Labour voters, 62% pick Jeremy Corbyn as the most capable PM – but one in four of them still choose Mrs May.  And this is all against a backdrop of voters telling us that they are placing more importance on leadership than they did in 2015 – again, especially among Conservative voters. 

Given all of this, perhaps it’s not surprising that only 21% Conservative voters say they might change their mind, compared with 43% of Labour voters and a worrying 60% of Liberal Democrats.  Nor that, in line with most other polls, we’ve seen the Conservatives strengthen their already healthy lead in voting intentions.  In fact, their lead matches the best we’ve ever recorded for them during an election campaign, which was just before Margaret Thatcher’s decisive victory in 1983.   

Of course, despite winning the race on leadership, the Conservative’s victory in 2015 only delivered them a small majority overall.  Theresa May, though, will be disappointed if her ratings can’t deliver a better result.

• Gideon Skinner wrote this article for The Times Red Box